According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.
A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state [...]
Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry.
Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.
And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.
Part of the credit has to go to the New Democrat Network, which has aggressively targetted not just Latinos in Miami-Dade, but also the previously untouchable Cuban-American community.
Check it out -- my Guanaco peeps are going to be ringing it up for Kerry!
And speaking of NDN, this is the best ad ever. Thanks to NDN, Latinos have gotten better commercials this election cycle than any of the rest of the country. (My other favorite, check out the ad titled "Two Jobs.)
(A "Guanaco" is Salvadoran slang for "Salvadoran".)
Presidential poll may track big changes in Dade
If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.
And if that's true, President Bush is in trouble.
The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.
Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.
If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here's why:
In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County....
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/ne ... 111.htm?1c
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