Norman Ornstein: This time, down to the wire?
The presidential nominations could be in play right up to the party conventions. Here's why:
Published: July 31, 2007
Gingrich vs. Gore in 2008? The possibility is not nearly as flaky as it sounds.
This election cycle creates a significant chance -- the first in modern memory -- that both parties could string out their presidential nominations until their conventions next summer. And if it's a convention free-for-all, delegates could turn to alternatives.
The 2008 presidential election is the first in 80 years with no president or vice president running. It has seen the earliest start for top-tier candidates in history -- most were in and running hard by January. It has a more compressed schedule: Nearly two-thirds of delegates will be selected between the Iowa caucuses Jan. 14 and the slew of state primaries Feb. 5.
Conventional wisdom (no pun intended) says this front-loaded schedule will help a front-runner sew up a nomination early. Maybe. One candidate could catch fire, win Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire and develop unstoppable momentum. Or a candidate may secure an overwhelming financial advantage and dominate TV ads leading up to Super-Mega Tuesday on Feb. 5.
But it could go in the other direction. Why? One reason is the large field of candidates. Many are well-financed, and others have traction from a popular issue or a big geographic or ethnic base. That makes it less likely that one candidate can win all the early caucuses and primaries.
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http://www.startribune.com/commentary/s ... 33508.html
This time, down to the wire? Ornstein
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