http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 61414.html
Alan Watkins
Alan Watkins: New Labour awaits a new messiah
Harold Wilson improved the party's prospects and Tony Blair changed its nature, but there's now a vacancy
Some time after the Labour Party's defeats in the 1980s, The Spectator (a less strident Conservative organ in those days) published an article on the lines: Can Labour ever win again? It was by Lord Skidelsky, best known for his lengthy biography of J M Keynes. The firm answer was No.
The life peer asked the question when on his way from the SDP to the Conservatives. Which part of his journey he had then reached I have now forgotten. In any case it does not greatly matter. The short point is that a respected public intellectual (to use the United States term) was able to make a coherent case that the Labour Party was over, finished, done for.
We had been there before. In the post-Suez of the later 1950s, Labour under Hugh Gaitskell confidently expected to win the 1959 election. As things turned out, the Conservatives under Harold Macmillan (the subject of a masterly new biography by Charles Williams) were returned with a huge majority.
The victory came as a tremendous shock to the Labour system. Earnest enquirers asked: Can Labour win? Or, alternatively: Must Labour lose? Several books or pamphlets were published on the subject. The leading theoretician of the party, indeed, of the whole of politics at this point – Anthony Crosland – pronounced that certain changes would have to come about rapidly. The emphasis would be on modernity and change.
The dispute inside the party was proceeding merrily on its way when Gaitskell died. Harold Wilson succeeded him, providing his own version of the Promised Land by means of the slogan Science and Socialism. The consequence was that Labour won the 1964 election.
Most observers thought Labour would win more easily than by the four seats that turned out to be the case. The moral is that, in 1959, people were saying that Labour would never rule again but, by 1962 (the year of the Orpington by-election), there was virtual unanimity that the Conservatives would shortly suffer a crushing defeat.
The story of the Labour triumph in 1997 is more complicated. The party could have won in 1992. Indeed, most people expected it to win. The leader of the party, Neil Kinnock, certainly expected it. Did Lord Kinnock, as he later became, create a new party? I do not think he did. He helped to change the party. But then, so did Peter Mandelson, and several others engaged in more or less the same line of business. But it was still the same party.
It was continued, not so much by other means, under John Smith as by exactly the same means. There was a small skirmish where the conservatives, what might be called the Stuckists, adopted the slogan One More Heave, a reference to the recently lost election, while the radicals did not know quite what they wanted. Smith stayed with the consolidators, except over the reform of the party constitution.
The change in the nature of the party came with the arrival of Mr Tony Blair. Wilson did not change the party but changed its political prospects. Mr Blair changed both its prospects and the nature of the party. Mr Gordon Brown finds himself presiding over a last phase, in much the same way as James Callaghan did in 1976-79.
To compile a sort of balance-sheet of the Callaghan and Brown years would be an exercise in false accounting. Even so, I would not have expected Jim Callaghan to have a spirited, independent-minded MP deselected for allowing his daughter to live in his flat, so bringing about the loss of a previously secure government seat.
I once spent some time in the Norwich South constituency. It was during the 1964 election. The Labour candidate was a friend, Christopher Norwood, who won the seat and remained an MP until 1970; he died young in 1972. I remember the enormous number of council houses in both the South and North part of the constituency.
While the South was wobbly (it had been represented, for a time, by the Tory minister Geoffrey Rippon), the North was solidly Labour. It changed, for a time, in the 1980s. Even so, Mr David Cameron paid half a dozen or so visits to the constituency. He was about the place on polling day itself.
It was the great rugby coach Carwyn James who advised his charges on the British Isles tour of New Zealand in 1971: "Get your retaliation in first." He was a gentle, scholarly man. But that is by the way. The functionaries of the Labour Party have evidently decided to get their own excuses in first.
The circumstances, we were told, were different. So they were. But they were brought about ... I was about to write "by the obstinacy of Mr Brown". It tends to trip off the pen, along with "pig-headed" and "will not listen to advice". But it was not as if Mr Brown had been determined to pronounce a sentence of life imprisonment on a largely innocent prisoner in the form of Dr Ian Gibson. It was, rather, that Mr Brown did not have the vaguest idea of what he was meant to be doing.
The precedents I cited earlier – Wilson in 1963 and Blair in 1994 – may be comforting to some MPs, though there are not many of them still around on the Labour benches.
To any hopeful survivors, I bring no comfort at all. Wilson was a new leader, who was opposing a tired Tory administration. Mr Blair was a new leader likewise, who was against a government which seemed to be even more incompetent than it really was.
The wisdom of the wise is that nothing ever happens during a parliamentary recess. In fact quite a lot can happen. There was the outbreak of war in 1939 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. In September 2006 there was the email plot against Mr Blair which led to his departure in the following year. The long recess leads Satan to provide work for idle hands.
After the last crisis just before the reshuffle when Mr Brown kept his job, and Lord Mandelson appeared in front of our wondering eyes like a god from the party machine, we, or some of us, breathed a sigh of relief. We should have a rest until, say, November and the speculation could begin again.
Now along comes the Norwich North by-election. In the few weeks before the contest, all kinds of extravagant predictions were being made: that the Greens would come second or, more likely, that it would be the Liberal Democrats. In reality the result was more alarming for Labour. The party suffered a straight defeat at the hands of the Tories.
It may be that Mr Alan Johnson would do something to raise the Government a few points in the opinion polls, at any rate for a couple of months. In any case, the electorate would not be prepared to have yet another prime minister imposed on them. But I doubt whether he or anybody else can win the election for Labour.
Just as Mr Blair created a new party, so somebody else will have to invent a replacement for New Labour.
---
Alan Watkins is a political commentator with a long and illustrious history. Author of books A Short Walk Down Fleet Street and A Conservative Coup, he won the 2005 Edgar Wallace Award for Fine Writing at the London Press Club awards. He also writes about rugby.
"Emails smears: Now Brown pays the price"
Moderator: Super Moderators
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... -poll.html
Gordon Brown is 'John Major in 1996', according to new poll
Gordon Brown's Government is now as unpopular as John Major's the year before his Conservative party suffered a landslide general election defeat, according to a new poll.
By Andrew Porter, Political Editor
Published: 10:00PM BST 30 Jul 2009
The Prime Minister's supporters had hoped that Labour's position was more akin to the Conservatives in 1991, when they recovered to win the election a year later. But increasingly the evidence points to a more ominous comparison.
A Daily Telegraph YouGov poll found that 70 per cent of voters now disapprove of the Government's record, with only 17 per cent approving. That is identical to the Major government in July 1996.
Nine months later the Tories were swept from power by a rampant Tony Blair. David Cameron will hope he pushes on and gets a similarly decisive result in next year's general election.
Today's poll also shows that his party holds a 14 point lead over Labour.
The Tories polled 41 per cent, up three on last month, and Labour 27 per cent, up two. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 18 per cent.
There is more bad news for the Government on the war in Afghanistan. Only 15 per cent believe the cause is just and worth the loss of British soldiers lives.
This month has been the bloodiest for British troops with 22 losing their lives, and causing senior politicians to seriously question Britain's involvement for the first time. According to the poll, 50 per cent of voters believe the cause is just but not worth the loss of British lives.
The public also sides with those who have been demanding more equipment to help fight the conflict in Afghanistan. Nearly three quarters of people (71 per cent) said Gen Sir Richard Dannatt, the Chief of the General Staff, is right in saying ministers are doing too little too late to get more helicopters to the front line in Helmand.
The personal ratings of the leaders remain grim reading for Mr Brown. Only 19 per cent say he would make the best Prime Minister, while 37 per cent favour Mr Cameron and 10 per cent Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader.
With the pressure mounting on Alistair Darling to keep the VAT cut in place, 40 per cent of people in today's poll say the rate should be kept at 15 per cent either permanently or at least extended for the time being.
The Daily Telegraph is campaigning for the Chancellor to rethink his plan to raise VAT back to 17.5 per cent at the end of the year.
The only worrying result for Mr Cameron is the public's opposition to his plans for road tolls. At the weekend he suggested the tolls would be part of a range of new taxes that might be necessary to address the problem of the burgeoning budget deficit.
Yesterday, new figures showed that Labour's income from affiliations - including trade unions - rose from £7.9 million to £8 million in 2008. However, donations dropped from £11.2 million to £9.5 million and membership subs fell from £4.4 million to £3.9 million.
The Conservative party's total income dropped from £33.5 million in 2007 to £32.4 million. But Michael Spencer, the party treasurer said given the depth of the recession it was "a good achievement.
The 2007 figure was inflated by the conversion of £3 million in loans to donations, compared to £73,000 last year.
Gordon Brown is 'John Major in 1996', according to new poll
Gordon Brown's Government is now as unpopular as John Major's the year before his Conservative party suffered a landslide general election defeat, according to a new poll.
By Andrew Porter, Political Editor
Published: 10:00PM BST 30 Jul 2009
The Prime Minister's supporters had hoped that Labour's position was more akin to the Conservatives in 1991, when they recovered to win the election a year later. But increasingly the evidence points to a more ominous comparison.
A Daily Telegraph YouGov poll found that 70 per cent of voters now disapprove of the Government's record, with only 17 per cent approving. That is identical to the Major government in July 1996.
Nine months later the Tories were swept from power by a rampant Tony Blair. David Cameron will hope he pushes on and gets a similarly decisive result in next year's general election.
Today's poll also shows that his party holds a 14 point lead over Labour.
The Tories polled 41 per cent, up three on last month, and Labour 27 per cent, up two. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 18 per cent.
There is more bad news for the Government on the war in Afghanistan. Only 15 per cent believe the cause is just and worth the loss of British soldiers lives.
This month has been the bloodiest for British troops with 22 losing their lives, and causing senior politicians to seriously question Britain's involvement for the first time. According to the poll, 50 per cent of voters believe the cause is just but not worth the loss of British lives.
The public also sides with those who have been demanding more equipment to help fight the conflict in Afghanistan. Nearly three quarters of people (71 per cent) said Gen Sir Richard Dannatt, the Chief of the General Staff, is right in saying ministers are doing too little too late to get more helicopters to the front line in Helmand.
The personal ratings of the leaders remain grim reading for Mr Brown. Only 19 per cent say he would make the best Prime Minister, while 37 per cent favour Mr Cameron and 10 per cent Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader.
With the pressure mounting on Alistair Darling to keep the VAT cut in place, 40 per cent of people in today's poll say the rate should be kept at 15 per cent either permanently or at least extended for the time being.
The Daily Telegraph is campaigning for the Chancellor to rethink his plan to raise VAT back to 17.5 per cent at the end of the year.
The only worrying result for Mr Cameron is the public's opposition to his plans for road tolls. At the weekend he suggested the tolls would be part of a range of new taxes that might be necessary to address the problem of the burgeoning budget deficit.
Yesterday, new figures showed that Labour's income from affiliations - including trade unions - rose from £7.9 million to £8 million in 2008. However, donations dropped from £11.2 million to £9.5 million and membership subs fell from £4.4 million to £3.9 million.
The Conservative party's total income dropped from £33.5 million in 2007 to £32.4 million. But Michael Spencer, the party treasurer said given the depth of the recession it was "a good achievement.
The 2007 figure was inflated by the conversion of £3 million in loans to donations, compared to £73,000 last year.
racehorse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... ction.html
'Labour has a lot of work to do before the general election'
Lord Mandelson admitted this week that Labour will be the underdogs in the general election campaign.
By David Hughes
Published: 10:00PM BST 30 Jul 2009
The July YouGov poll shows just how much ground they have to make up.
Support for the Tories has edged above the 40 per cent mark once again and their 14-point lead over Labour would be enough to give David Cameron a comfortable Commons majority of about 80 seats.
More striking is just how bad the Government's ratings are - with just 17 per cent approving and 70 per cent disapproving, they are identical to those registered by the Major Government in July 1996, the same point in the political cycle. The following May, the Tories were swept away by the New Labour landslide.
As for personal ratings, Mr Cameron outscores Gordon Brown by a ratio of almost two to one (37 per cent to 19 per cent) while the Tory leader is seen as doing a good job by 52 per cent against 28 per cent who thinks he is not.
On economic competence, Mr Cameron holds a comfortable lead (37 per cent to 23 per cent) but will be concerned the margin is not greater. It was exactly the same a year ago.
By the same token, Mr Brown will draw some comfort from the fact that people are not quite as gloomy about the economy as they were. Twenty per cent believe their financial circumstances will improve over the next year while 41 per cent think they will get worse, a "feelgood factor" of minus 21 points. A year ago, the feelgood figure was minus 63 points.
Similarly, just 10 per cent think the Government's measures for tackling the recession have started to work - but in the spring the figure was just 2 per cent. This offers some crumbs of comfort for the Prime Minister, but no more than that.
'Labour has a lot of work to do before the general election'
Lord Mandelson admitted this week that Labour will be the underdogs in the general election campaign.
By David Hughes
Published: 10:00PM BST 30 Jul 2009
The July YouGov poll shows just how much ground they have to make up.
Support for the Tories has edged above the 40 per cent mark once again and their 14-point lead over Labour would be enough to give David Cameron a comfortable Commons majority of about 80 seats.
More striking is just how bad the Government's ratings are - with just 17 per cent approving and 70 per cent disapproving, they are identical to those registered by the Major Government in July 1996, the same point in the political cycle. The following May, the Tories were swept away by the New Labour landslide.
As for personal ratings, Mr Cameron outscores Gordon Brown by a ratio of almost two to one (37 per cent to 19 per cent) while the Tory leader is seen as doing a good job by 52 per cent against 28 per cent who thinks he is not.
On economic competence, Mr Cameron holds a comfortable lead (37 per cent to 23 per cent) but will be concerned the margin is not greater. It was exactly the same a year ago.
By the same token, Mr Brown will draw some comfort from the fact that people are not quite as gloomy about the economy as they were. Twenty per cent believe their financial circumstances will improve over the next year while 41 per cent think they will get worse, a "feelgood factor" of minus 21 points. A year ago, the feelgood figure was minus 63 points.
Similarly, just 10 per cent think the Government's measures for tackling the recession have started to work - but in the spring the figure was just 2 per cent. This offers some crumbs of comfort for the Prime Minister, but no more than that.
racehorse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... shows.html
Conservatives 24 points ahead in marginal constituencies, poll shows
Gordon Brown has suffered a fresh blow with a new poll obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showing the Conservatives have a 24-point lead in battleground constituencies.
By Patrick Hennessy, Political editor
Gordon Brown has suffered a fresh blow with a new poll obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showing the Conservatives have a 24-point lead in battleground constituencies.
Gordon Brown will face an even tougher fight in marginal constituencies than in the country as a whole, a poll suggests.
The survey, conducted in 30 of the most marginal seats in the country, is evidence that David Cameron's party is doing even better in vital "swing" constituencies than it is in the country as a whole.
The Crosby/Textor/Pepper poll, obtained by The Sunday Telegraph, puts the Tories on 44 per cent – well ahead of Labour on 20 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent.
By comparison, this weekend's YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph put the Conservative lead, across the whole country, at 14 per cent.
Mr Brown, who will begin a family holiday in the Lake District this week, will spend the summer plotting a political fightback aimed at halting the Tory advance and regaining momentum for Labour ahead of the party's annual conference in Brighton in September.
Although the threat of an autumn challenge to his leadership has receded, the Prime Minister was warned by internal opponents that he had until the New Year to turn the party's fortunes around in the wake of its defeat in the Norwich North by-election last month.
In Norwich North the Tories overturned a Labour majority of 5,459 from the 2005 general election to win the seat by 7,348 and send Chloe Smith to Westminster as the youngest MP at 27.
Today's poll delivers more grim news for Mr Brown. Although the 30 seats where polling took place all require smaller swings than Norwich North for the Tories to capture them, the size of the Conservative lead suggests sweeping gains throughout the country and a potential landslide win at the next election, which must be held by June 2010.
Support for Labour in key areas of the country – which held up strongly under Tony Blair's years as party leader – has fallen away dramatically under Mr Brown's premiership.
A poll of marginal seats, showing rising Tory support, notoriously persuaded the Prime Minister to scrap plans for an election in the autumn of 2007, just months after he came to power.
Today's survey, conducted for FlyingMatters, an aviation and tourism lobbying group, in which 1,004 voters were interviewed between 1 July and 11 July, saw voters in marginal seats overwhelmingly choose the economy as the most important issue for the government to tackle, followed by health, education and unemployment.
Three quarters of voters believed Air Passenger Duty was a "stealth" tax, while 89 per cent were unaware there the levy is set for big increases later this year and next year.
Currently, a family of four flying economy class to the furthest destinations pays £160 in tax. This is set to rise to £229 in November and £340 12 months later.
Conservatives 24 points ahead in marginal constituencies, poll shows
Gordon Brown has suffered a fresh blow with a new poll obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showing the Conservatives have a 24-point lead in battleground constituencies.
By Patrick Hennessy, Political editor
Gordon Brown has suffered a fresh blow with a new poll obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showing the Conservatives have a 24-point lead in battleground constituencies.
Gordon Brown will face an even tougher fight in marginal constituencies than in the country as a whole, a poll suggests.
The survey, conducted in 30 of the most marginal seats in the country, is evidence that David Cameron's party is doing even better in vital "swing" constituencies than it is in the country as a whole.
The Crosby/Textor/Pepper poll, obtained by The Sunday Telegraph, puts the Tories on 44 per cent – well ahead of Labour on 20 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent.
By comparison, this weekend's YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph put the Conservative lead, across the whole country, at 14 per cent.
Mr Brown, who will begin a family holiday in the Lake District this week, will spend the summer plotting a political fightback aimed at halting the Tory advance and regaining momentum for Labour ahead of the party's annual conference in Brighton in September.
Although the threat of an autumn challenge to his leadership has receded, the Prime Minister was warned by internal opponents that he had until the New Year to turn the party's fortunes around in the wake of its defeat in the Norwich North by-election last month.
In Norwich North the Tories overturned a Labour majority of 5,459 from the 2005 general election to win the seat by 7,348 and send Chloe Smith to Westminster as the youngest MP at 27.
Today's poll delivers more grim news for Mr Brown. Although the 30 seats where polling took place all require smaller swings than Norwich North for the Tories to capture them, the size of the Conservative lead suggests sweeping gains throughout the country and a potential landslide win at the next election, which must be held by June 2010.
Support for Labour in key areas of the country – which held up strongly under Tony Blair's years as party leader – has fallen away dramatically under Mr Brown's premiership.
A poll of marginal seats, showing rising Tory support, notoriously persuaded the Prime Minister to scrap plans for an election in the autumn of 2007, just months after he came to power.
Today's survey, conducted for FlyingMatters, an aviation and tourism lobbying group, in which 1,004 voters were interviewed between 1 July and 11 July, saw voters in marginal seats overwhelmingly choose the economy as the most important issue for the government to tackle, followed by health, education and unemployment.
Three quarters of voters believed Air Passenger Duty was a "stealth" tax, while 89 per cent were unaware there the levy is set for big increases later this year and next year.
Currently, a family of four flying economy class to the furthest destinations pays £160 in tax. This is set to rise to £229 in November and £340 12 months later.
Last edited by racehorse on 08-13-2009 03:17 AM, edited 1 time in total.
racehorse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/tele ... rning.html
Telegraph View
A government that has given up governing
Labour has finally resorted to spinning instead of taking action.
Published: 7:06PM BST 12 Aug 2009
The dishonesty and vacuity that have become the hallmarks of the Government's handling of the recession were shamelessly exhibited by Lord Mandelson yesterday. Our unelected acting prime minister was interviewed on BBC Radio's Today programme. Half of the questions he could not answer, either through ignorance or because the Government's policy platform is so rickety; the other half he would not answer, for purely partisan political reasons.
Anyone who was listening to the exchanges would have despaired. Yesterday, the percentage of Britons who are out of work climbed above the level Labour inherited 12 years ago; 2,000 jobs are being lost every day; almost a million young people are on the dole. The response of the First Secretary of State? To take cheap potshots at the Opposition. It sums up the Government's entire approach since the credit crunch first hit. Its idea of crisis management is actually media management. It is not policy that matters, but polls. The imminence of a general election has dictated strategy at every step. Labour has given up governing: it is simply fighting for survival.
We are paying a high price for this dereliction. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, warned yesterday that any recovery in 2010 would be "fragile". So much for Alistair Darling's prediction in the Budget, less than four months ago, that the economy would bounce back next year: it now looks more like a weak limp. The Bank's programme of quantitative easing (in pursuit, as our economics editor points out opposite, of a devaluation strategy) may be mitigating the impact of the recession, but it is a high-risk approach that could leave us with a dreadful inflationary hangover. Yet at least the Bank is doing something. The Government appears to be frozen in the headlamps.
There are a number of measures it could take to save jobs, which must now be its overriding priority – cutting personal taxes to stimulate demand, reducing business taxes, suspending the minimum wage. Yet there are no signs it has even contemplated such interventions. As for the comprehensive spending review that is desperately needed in order to begin tackling our crippling budget deficit, that will – naturally – not be launched until after polling day.
Instead, we get spin. What else should we expect from a government whose most powerful figure is not the Prime Minister, but the King of Spin himself? Lord Mandelson's ascendancy is a democratic affront, sadly in character for an administration that has treated the House of Commons with contempt. We should be put out of our misery, as should this discredited Government, through a general election this autumn.
Telegraph View
A government that has given up governing
Labour has finally resorted to spinning instead of taking action.
Published: 7:06PM BST 12 Aug 2009
The dishonesty and vacuity that have become the hallmarks of the Government's handling of the recession were shamelessly exhibited by Lord Mandelson yesterday. Our unelected acting prime minister was interviewed on BBC Radio's Today programme. Half of the questions he could not answer, either through ignorance or because the Government's policy platform is so rickety; the other half he would not answer, for purely partisan political reasons.
Anyone who was listening to the exchanges would have despaired. Yesterday, the percentage of Britons who are out of work climbed above the level Labour inherited 12 years ago; 2,000 jobs are being lost every day; almost a million young people are on the dole. The response of the First Secretary of State? To take cheap potshots at the Opposition. It sums up the Government's entire approach since the credit crunch first hit. Its idea of crisis management is actually media management. It is not policy that matters, but polls. The imminence of a general election has dictated strategy at every step. Labour has given up governing: it is simply fighting for survival.
We are paying a high price for this dereliction. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, warned yesterday that any recovery in 2010 would be "fragile". So much for Alistair Darling's prediction in the Budget, less than four months ago, that the economy would bounce back next year: it now looks more like a weak limp. The Bank's programme of quantitative easing (in pursuit, as our economics editor points out opposite, of a devaluation strategy) may be mitigating the impact of the recession, but it is a high-risk approach that could leave us with a dreadful inflationary hangover. Yet at least the Bank is doing something. The Government appears to be frozen in the headlamps.
There are a number of measures it could take to save jobs, which must now be its overriding priority – cutting personal taxes to stimulate demand, reducing business taxes, suspending the minimum wage. Yet there are no signs it has even contemplated such interventions. As for the comprehensive spending review that is desperately needed in order to begin tackling our crippling budget deficit, that will – naturally – not be launched until after polling day.
Instead, we get spin. What else should we expect from a government whose most powerful figure is not the Prime Minister, but the King of Spin himself? Lord Mandelson's ascendancy is a democratic affront, sadly in character for an administration that has treated the House of Commons with contempt. We should be put out of our misery, as should this discredited Government, through a general election this autumn.
racehorse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... ister.html
Voters prefer David Cameron to Gordon Brown as Prime Minister
Voters think David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown by two to one, according to a new poll.
By Ben Leach
Published: 7:05PM BST 27 Sep 2009
Voters think David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown by two to one, a poll suggests.
Just 20 per cent believe Mr Brown is the best man for the job out of the current three main party leaders, the ICM survey suggested.
Some 43 per cent said the best choice was Mr Cameron, the Tory leader, while 14 per cent preferred the Liberal Democrats' Nick Clegg. Another 16 per cent said none of the three.
Even a quarter of Labour voters backed Mr Cameron, the poll found, demonstrating the scale of the challenge facing the Prime Minister ahead of his party's annual conference.
The poll also suggested that Labour goes into its last annual rally before the next election trailing the Tories by 14 points. Tory support was put at 40 per cent and Labour's at 26 per cent.
Potentially most alarming for Labour is that the Lib Dems are only three points adrift on 23 per cent, although that may reflect increased coverage during the Lib Dem conference last week.
More than two-thirds of voters - 69 per cent - would not change their vote if Mr Brown was replaced as Labour leader.
Only 16 per cent said it would make them more likely to vote Labour, indicating that a change of leader might not significantly improve the party's position.
ICM interviewed 1,003 adults by telephone between September 23 and 24 for the News of the World poll, weighting results to the profile of all adults.
Voters prefer David Cameron to Gordon Brown as Prime Minister
Voters think David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown by two to one, according to a new poll.
By Ben Leach
Published: 7:05PM BST 27 Sep 2009
Voters think David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown by two to one, a poll suggests.
Just 20 per cent believe Mr Brown is the best man for the job out of the current three main party leaders, the ICM survey suggested.
Some 43 per cent said the best choice was Mr Cameron, the Tory leader, while 14 per cent preferred the Liberal Democrats' Nick Clegg. Another 16 per cent said none of the three.
Even a quarter of Labour voters backed Mr Cameron, the poll found, demonstrating the scale of the challenge facing the Prime Minister ahead of his party's annual conference.
The poll also suggested that Labour goes into its last annual rally before the next election trailing the Tories by 14 points. Tory support was put at 40 per cent and Labour's at 26 per cent.
Potentially most alarming for Labour is that the Lib Dems are only three points adrift on 23 per cent, although that may reflect increased coverage during the Lib Dem conference last week.
More than two-thirds of voters - 69 per cent - would not change their vote if Mr Brown was replaced as Labour leader.
Only 16 per cent said it would make them more likely to vote Labour, indicating that a change of leader might not significantly improve the party's position.
ICM interviewed 1,003 adults by telephone between September 23 and 24 for the News of the World poll, weighting results to the profile of all adults.
racehorse
I honestly missed these rumours that were flying around. But I guess I am not the only one that has noticed his health.
BBC stuns Gordon Brown with question on pill taking
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... aking.html
BBC stuns Gordon Brown with question on pill taking
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... aking.html
SETIsLady wrote: I honestly missed these rumours that were flying around. But I guess I am not the only one that has noticed his health.
BBC stuns Gordon Brown with question on pill taking
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... aking.html
Thanks, SETIsLady.
I was aware of the rumors.
Still, the Prime Minister has denied any serious health problems.
I hope he really is well.
racehorse
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ ... 97246.html
October 8, 2009
Getting Britain Back on Her Feet: Keynote Speech to the Conservative Party Conference
David Cameron
Conservative Party Conference
Manchester, Lancashire UK
I want to get straight to the point.
We all know how bad things are, massive debt, social breakdown, political disenchantment. But what I want to talk about today is how good things could be.
Don't get me wrong, I have no illusions. If win this election, it is going to be tough. There will have to be cutbacks in public spending, and that will be painful. We will need to confront Britain's culture of irresponsibility and that will be hard to take for many people. And we will have to tear down Labour's big government bureaucracy, ripping up its time-wasting, money-draining, responsibility-sapping nonsense.
None of this will be easy. We will be tested. I will be tested. I'm ready for that - and so I believe, are the British people. So yes, there is a steep climb ahead.
But I tell you this. The view from the summit will be worth it.
AFGHANISTAN
If we win the election the first and gravest responsibility I will face is for our troops in Afghanistan and their families at home.
I know that.
I know about the mothers and the wives, the husbands and the children, counting the minutes between news bulletins, fearing the announcement of the next casualty. I know what they want - and deserve - from their government. A ruthless, relentless focus on fighting, winning and coming home.
That must start at the top. Instead of a revolving door at the Ministry of Defence with a second rate substitute in charge, we need a politician from the front rank, and in Liam Fox we have one.
We need a clear chain of command that flows right from the top. My national security council, with the key ministers and defence chiefs, will sit from day one of a new government, as a war cabinet.
We need a strategy that is credible, and do-able. We are not in Afghanistan to deliver the perfect society. We are there to stop the re-establishment of terrorist training camps.
Frankly, time is short. We cannot spend another eight years taking ground only to give it back again.
So our method should be clear......send more soldiers to train more Afghans to deliver the security we need. Then we can bring our troops home.
And I know the most urgent requirement of all. That those brave men and women we send into danger have every piece of equipment they need to do the job we ask of them. I will make sure that happens.
And I have something else to say. When the country is at war, when Whitehall is at war, we need people who understand war in Whitehall.
That's why I'm proud to announce today that someone who has fought for our country and served for forty years in our armed forces will not only advise our defence team but will join our benches in the House of Lords and if we win the election could serve in a future Conservative Government:
General Sir Richard Dannatt. As we welcome him to serve with us, let us all salute those who serve our country.
FAMILY, COMMUNITY, COUNTRY
We could have come to Manchester this week and played it safe. But that's not what this party is about and it's certainly not what I'm about.
When I stood on that stage in Blackpool four years ago it wasn't just to head up this party, sit around and wait for the tide to turn. It was to lead this party and change it, so together we could turn the tide.
Look what we've done together. More women candidates, campaigning on the environment, the party of the NHS. And this year, here in Manchester, our most successful, dynamic conference for twenty years.
I'd like to thank everyone involved, the police who kept us safe and your chum and mine, Eric Pickles.
But also this year, in these difficult times, we've won the argument on the economy and debt as George Osborne showed in that magnificent speech on Tuesday.
That was the success we achieved this year.
But for me and Samantha this year will only ever mean one thing. When such a big part of your life suddenly ends nothing else - nothing outside - matters. It's like the world has stopped turning and the clocks have stopped ticking. And as they slowly start again, weeks later, you ask yourself all over again: do I really want to do this? You think about what you really believe and what sustains you.
I know what sustains me the most. She is sitting right there and I'm incredibly proud to call her my wife.
My beliefs. I am not a complicated person. I love this country and the things it stands for.
That the state is your servant, never your master. Common sense and decency. The British sense of community.
I have some simple beliefs.That there is such a thing as society, it's just not the same thing as the state. That there is a ‘we' in politics, and not just a ‘me.'
Above all, the importance of family. That fierce sense of loyalty you feel for each other. The unconditional love you give and receive, especially when things go wrong or when you get it wrong. That powerful sense you have when you hold your children and there's nothing, absolutely nothing - you wouldn't do to protect them.
This is my DNA: family, community, country. These are the things I care about. They are what made me. They are what I'm in public service to protect, promote and defend. And I believe they are what we need in Britain today more than ever.
I know how lucky I've been to have the chances I had. And I know there are children growing up in Britain today who will never know the love of a father. Who are born in homes that hold them back. Who go to schools that keep them back.
Children who will never start a business, never raise a family, never see the world. Children who will live the life they're given, not the life they want. That is what I want to change.
I want every child to have the chances I had. That is why I'm standing here.
BIG GOVERNMENT
But we won't help anyone unless we face up to some big problems. The highest budget deficit since the war. The deepest recession since the war. Social breakdown; political disillusionment. Big problems for the next government to address.
And here is the big argument in British politics today, put plainly and simply. Labour say that to solve the country's problems, we need more government.
Don't they see? It is more government that got us into this mess.
Why is our economy broken? Not just because Labour wrongly thought they'd abolished boom and bust. But because government got too big, spent too much and doubled the national debt.
Why is our society broken? Because government got too big, did too much and undermined responsibility.
Why are our politics broken? Because government got too big, promised too much and pretended it had all the answers.
Of course it was done with the best intentions. And let's be clear: not everything Labour did was wrong.
Devolution; the minimum wage; civil partnerships, these are good things that we will we keep.
But this idea that for every problem there's a government solution for every issue an initiative, for every situation a czar....
It ends with them making you register with the government to help out your child's football team. With police officers punished for babysitting each other's children. With laws so bureaucratic and complicated even their own Attorney General can't obey them.
Do you know the worst thing about their big government? It's not the cost, though that's bad enough. It is the steady erosion of responsibility. Our task is to lead Britain in a completely different direction.
So no, we are not going to solve our problems with bigger government. We are going to solve our problems with a stronger society. Stronger families. Stronger communities. A stronger country. All by rebuilding responsibility.
THE DEBT CRISIS
The clearest sign of big government irresponsibility is the enormous size of our debt.
If we win the election, we will have to confront Labour's Debt Crisis, deal with it, and take the country with us. I want everyone to understand the gravity of our situation.
Our national debt has doubled in the last five years and our annual deficit next year will be over £170 billion.
That's twice as big as when we nearly went bankrupt in the 1970s. It is a massive risk to our economy. If we spend more than we earn, we have to get the money from somewhere.
Right now, the Government is simply printing it. Sometime soon that will have to stop, because in the end, printing money leads to inflation. Then the Government will have to borrow it.
But we'll only be given the money if lenders are confident we can pay it back. If they're not, we'll have to pay higher interest rates and that could stop our economic recovery in its tracks.
So we have three choices.
Option one: we can just default on the debt. Not pay it. Other countries have done that in the past. But I don't think anyone in this country wants to go down that road.
Option two: we could encourage inflation, which would wipe out the value of the debt, making it easier to pay off. But that's not just an economic disaster - it's a social disaster too. It doesn't just wipe out debts, it wipes out people's hard-earned savings.
So we have the third option - for me the only option. We must pay down this deficit. The longer we leave it, the worse it will be for all of us.
I know there are some who say we should just wait.
Don't talk about the deficit. Don't even plan for what needs to be done. Just wait. Don't they understand - it's the waiting that's the problem.
The longer we wait for a credible plan, the bigger the bill for our children to pay. The longer we wait, the greater the risk to the recovery. The longer we wait, the higher the chance we return to recession.
Here's the most obvious reason we can't wait. The more we wait, the more we waste on the interest we're paying on this debt.
Next year, Gordon Brown will spend more money on the interest on our debt than on schools. More than on law and order, more than on child poverty.
So I say to the Labour Party and the trades unions just tell me what is compassionate, what is progressive about spending more on debt interest than on helping the poorest children in our country?
The progressive thing to do, the responsible thing to do is to get a grip on the debt but in a way that brings the country together instead of driving it apart. That means showing leadership at the top which is why we will cut ministers' pay and freeze it for a parliament.
It means showing that we're all in this together which is why we'll freeze public sector pay for all but the one million lowest paid public sector workers......for one year to help protect jobs.
And it means showing that the rich will pay their share which is why for now the 50p tax rate will have to stay and Child Trust Funds for those on middle and higher incomes will have to go.
Yes we have made some tough choices. But in British politics today that is the only responsible thing to do.
PENSIONERS
Dealing with this debt crisis is not just about cuts in the short term. We must also live within our means over the long term. Everyone knows we have an ageing population.
Our pension system was designed in a time when many people didn't live till 70 .... It is out of date and it has to change. That's why this week we made the difficult decision to bring forward the raising of the pension age.
I know that working longer will be tough for many people. But it will also allow us to help pensioners more.
I got an email from a lady who wrote to me in desperation. She doesn't want me to reveal her name because she's so frightened of what might happen to her.
She and her husband left school at fifteen and started work straight away. They bought their own home, where they've lived for forty years. But they've been let down terribly. She lost out on the 10p tax and took a drop in her pension. She and her husband aren't entitled to pension credit because they saved for their old age.
Here's what she says:
"during the cold spell this winter, we sat watching TV with blankets wrapped around us.
The drug dealer and the druggies who live nearby had their windows wide open and the heating full on.
We don't bother watching police dramas on the TV, we just look out of our window.
Our savings are making no money.
If one of us dies we cannot afford to stay in our home."
This lady doesn't want pity. Pensioners don't want pity. They just want to know that if they've lived responsibly, they'll be looked after in their old age.
Parties have been talking about raising the pension in line with earnings for years. But it never happens.
Well let's be the party that finally makes it happen. Because of the difficult choice we've made on the pension age we'll be able not just to deal with our debt but to raise the basic state pension in line with earnings. Not just for one year, but for every year.
GROWTH
Cutting back on big government is not just about spending less. Getting our debt down means getting our economic growth up.
Let's be clear where growth will come from. Not big government, with its Regional Development Agencies and National Investment Corporations but entrepreneurs. New businesses, new industries, new technologies.
I get enterprise. I worked in business for seven years. And let me tell you what I learned during that time.
Complicated taxes, excessive regulations they make life impossible for entrepreneurs.
So I will always put the same questions to Ken Clarke and his business team.
What are you doing to make it easier to start a business? Easier to take people on? What are you doing to make regulation less complicated? To make locating a business here more attractive?
Ken Clarke and David Willetts this week helped launch our plan to Get Britain Working.
It is a plan to boost science, skills, self-employment a plan to improve training, technology, tax incentives for entrepreneurs.
This is what it means.
It means the man who's lost his job and his confidence saying yes, I can set up on my own, I can take responsibility, there's nothing to stop me.
It means the people he takes on, who thought they were written off, thinking yes I've got another chance and I can provide for my family again.
Self-belief is infectious and I want it to spread again throughout our country especially through the poorest places where Labour let hope fade away.
In Britain today, there are entrepreneurs everywhere - they just don't know it yet. Success stories everywhere - they just haven't been written yet. We must be the people who release that potential.
(Continued in Next Post)
October 8, 2009
Getting Britain Back on Her Feet: Keynote Speech to the Conservative Party Conference
David Cameron
Conservative Party Conference
Manchester, Lancashire UK
I want to get straight to the point.
We all know how bad things are, massive debt, social breakdown, political disenchantment. But what I want to talk about today is how good things could be.
Don't get me wrong, I have no illusions. If win this election, it is going to be tough. There will have to be cutbacks in public spending, and that will be painful. We will need to confront Britain's culture of irresponsibility and that will be hard to take for many people. And we will have to tear down Labour's big government bureaucracy, ripping up its time-wasting, money-draining, responsibility-sapping nonsense.
None of this will be easy. We will be tested. I will be tested. I'm ready for that - and so I believe, are the British people. So yes, there is a steep climb ahead.
But I tell you this. The view from the summit will be worth it.
AFGHANISTAN
If we win the election the first and gravest responsibility I will face is for our troops in Afghanistan and their families at home.
I know that.
I know about the mothers and the wives, the husbands and the children, counting the minutes between news bulletins, fearing the announcement of the next casualty. I know what they want - and deserve - from their government. A ruthless, relentless focus on fighting, winning and coming home.
That must start at the top. Instead of a revolving door at the Ministry of Defence with a second rate substitute in charge, we need a politician from the front rank, and in Liam Fox we have one.
We need a clear chain of command that flows right from the top. My national security council, with the key ministers and defence chiefs, will sit from day one of a new government, as a war cabinet.
We need a strategy that is credible, and do-able. We are not in Afghanistan to deliver the perfect society. We are there to stop the re-establishment of terrorist training camps.
Frankly, time is short. We cannot spend another eight years taking ground only to give it back again.
So our method should be clear......send more soldiers to train more Afghans to deliver the security we need. Then we can bring our troops home.
And I know the most urgent requirement of all. That those brave men and women we send into danger have every piece of equipment they need to do the job we ask of them. I will make sure that happens.
And I have something else to say. When the country is at war, when Whitehall is at war, we need people who understand war in Whitehall.
That's why I'm proud to announce today that someone who has fought for our country and served for forty years in our armed forces will not only advise our defence team but will join our benches in the House of Lords and if we win the election could serve in a future Conservative Government:
General Sir Richard Dannatt. As we welcome him to serve with us, let us all salute those who serve our country.
FAMILY, COMMUNITY, COUNTRY
We could have come to Manchester this week and played it safe. But that's not what this party is about and it's certainly not what I'm about.
When I stood on that stage in Blackpool four years ago it wasn't just to head up this party, sit around and wait for the tide to turn. It was to lead this party and change it, so together we could turn the tide.
Look what we've done together. More women candidates, campaigning on the environment, the party of the NHS. And this year, here in Manchester, our most successful, dynamic conference for twenty years.
I'd like to thank everyone involved, the police who kept us safe and your chum and mine, Eric Pickles.
But also this year, in these difficult times, we've won the argument on the economy and debt as George Osborne showed in that magnificent speech on Tuesday.
That was the success we achieved this year.
But for me and Samantha this year will only ever mean one thing. When such a big part of your life suddenly ends nothing else - nothing outside - matters. It's like the world has stopped turning and the clocks have stopped ticking. And as they slowly start again, weeks later, you ask yourself all over again: do I really want to do this? You think about what you really believe and what sustains you.
I know what sustains me the most. She is sitting right there and I'm incredibly proud to call her my wife.
My beliefs. I am not a complicated person. I love this country and the things it stands for.
That the state is your servant, never your master. Common sense and decency. The British sense of community.
I have some simple beliefs.That there is such a thing as society, it's just not the same thing as the state. That there is a ‘we' in politics, and not just a ‘me.'
Above all, the importance of family. That fierce sense of loyalty you feel for each other. The unconditional love you give and receive, especially when things go wrong or when you get it wrong. That powerful sense you have when you hold your children and there's nothing, absolutely nothing - you wouldn't do to protect them.
This is my DNA: family, community, country. These are the things I care about. They are what made me. They are what I'm in public service to protect, promote and defend. And I believe they are what we need in Britain today more than ever.
I know how lucky I've been to have the chances I had. And I know there are children growing up in Britain today who will never know the love of a father. Who are born in homes that hold them back. Who go to schools that keep them back.
Children who will never start a business, never raise a family, never see the world. Children who will live the life they're given, not the life they want. That is what I want to change.
I want every child to have the chances I had. That is why I'm standing here.
BIG GOVERNMENT
But we won't help anyone unless we face up to some big problems. The highest budget deficit since the war. The deepest recession since the war. Social breakdown; political disillusionment. Big problems for the next government to address.
And here is the big argument in British politics today, put plainly and simply. Labour say that to solve the country's problems, we need more government.
Don't they see? It is more government that got us into this mess.
Why is our economy broken? Not just because Labour wrongly thought they'd abolished boom and bust. But because government got too big, spent too much and doubled the national debt.
Why is our society broken? Because government got too big, did too much and undermined responsibility.
Why are our politics broken? Because government got too big, promised too much and pretended it had all the answers.
Of course it was done with the best intentions. And let's be clear: not everything Labour did was wrong.
Devolution; the minimum wage; civil partnerships, these are good things that we will we keep.
But this idea that for every problem there's a government solution for every issue an initiative, for every situation a czar....
It ends with them making you register with the government to help out your child's football team. With police officers punished for babysitting each other's children. With laws so bureaucratic and complicated even their own Attorney General can't obey them.
Do you know the worst thing about their big government? It's not the cost, though that's bad enough. It is the steady erosion of responsibility. Our task is to lead Britain in a completely different direction.
So no, we are not going to solve our problems with bigger government. We are going to solve our problems with a stronger society. Stronger families. Stronger communities. A stronger country. All by rebuilding responsibility.
THE DEBT CRISIS
The clearest sign of big government irresponsibility is the enormous size of our debt.
If we win the election, we will have to confront Labour's Debt Crisis, deal with it, and take the country with us. I want everyone to understand the gravity of our situation.
Our national debt has doubled in the last five years and our annual deficit next year will be over £170 billion.
That's twice as big as when we nearly went bankrupt in the 1970s. It is a massive risk to our economy. If we spend more than we earn, we have to get the money from somewhere.
Right now, the Government is simply printing it. Sometime soon that will have to stop, because in the end, printing money leads to inflation. Then the Government will have to borrow it.
But we'll only be given the money if lenders are confident we can pay it back. If they're not, we'll have to pay higher interest rates and that could stop our economic recovery in its tracks.
So we have three choices.
Option one: we can just default on the debt. Not pay it. Other countries have done that in the past. But I don't think anyone in this country wants to go down that road.
Option two: we could encourage inflation, which would wipe out the value of the debt, making it easier to pay off. But that's not just an economic disaster - it's a social disaster too. It doesn't just wipe out debts, it wipes out people's hard-earned savings.
So we have the third option - for me the only option. We must pay down this deficit. The longer we leave it, the worse it will be for all of us.
I know there are some who say we should just wait.
Don't talk about the deficit. Don't even plan for what needs to be done. Just wait. Don't they understand - it's the waiting that's the problem.
The longer we wait for a credible plan, the bigger the bill for our children to pay. The longer we wait, the greater the risk to the recovery. The longer we wait, the higher the chance we return to recession.
Here's the most obvious reason we can't wait. The more we wait, the more we waste on the interest we're paying on this debt.
Next year, Gordon Brown will spend more money on the interest on our debt than on schools. More than on law and order, more than on child poverty.
So I say to the Labour Party and the trades unions just tell me what is compassionate, what is progressive about spending more on debt interest than on helping the poorest children in our country?
The progressive thing to do, the responsible thing to do is to get a grip on the debt but in a way that brings the country together instead of driving it apart. That means showing leadership at the top which is why we will cut ministers' pay and freeze it for a parliament.
It means showing that we're all in this together which is why we'll freeze public sector pay for all but the one million lowest paid public sector workers......for one year to help protect jobs.
And it means showing that the rich will pay their share which is why for now the 50p tax rate will have to stay and Child Trust Funds for those on middle and higher incomes will have to go.
Yes we have made some tough choices. But in British politics today that is the only responsible thing to do.
PENSIONERS
Dealing with this debt crisis is not just about cuts in the short term. We must also live within our means over the long term. Everyone knows we have an ageing population.
Our pension system was designed in a time when many people didn't live till 70 .... It is out of date and it has to change. That's why this week we made the difficult decision to bring forward the raising of the pension age.
I know that working longer will be tough for many people. But it will also allow us to help pensioners more.
I got an email from a lady who wrote to me in desperation. She doesn't want me to reveal her name because she's so frightened of what might happen to her.
She and her husband left school at fifteen and started work straight away. They bought their own home, where they've lived for forty years. But they've been let down terribly. She lost out on the 10p tax and took a drop in her pension. She and her husband aren't entitled to pension credit because they saved for their old age.
Here's what she says:
"during the cold spell this winter, we sat watching TV with blankets wrapped around us.
The drug dealer and the druggies who live nearby had their windows wide open and the heating full on.
We don't bother watching police dramas on the TV, we just look out of our window.
Our savings are making no money.
If one of us dies we cannot afford to stay in our home."
This lady doesn't want pity. Pensioners don't want pity. They just want to know that if they've lived responsibly, they'll be looked after in their old age.
Parties have been talking about raising the pension in line with earnings for years. But it never happens.
Well let's be the party that finally makes it happen. Because of the difficult choice we've made on the pension age we'll be able not just to deal with our debt but to raise the basic state pension in line with earnings. Not just for one year, but for every year.
GROWTH
Cutting back on big government is not just about spending less. Getting our debt down means getting our economic growth up.
Let's be clear where growth will come from. Not big government, with its Regional Development Agencies and National Investment Corporations but entrepreneurs. New businesses, new industries, new technologies.
I get enterprise. I worked in business for seven years. And let me tell you what I learned during that time.
Complicated taxes, excessive regulations they make life impossible for entrepreneurs.
So I will always put the same questions to Ken Clarke and his business team.
What are you doing to make it easier to start a business? Easier to take people on? What are you doing to make regulation less complicated? To make locating a business here more attractive?
Ken Clarke and David Willetts this week helped launch our plan to Get Britain Working.
It is a plan to boost science, skills, self-employment a plan to improve training, technology, tax incentives for entrepreneurs.
This is what it means.
It means the man who's lost his job and his confidence saying yes, I can set up on my own, I can take responsibility, there's nothing to stop me.
It means the people he takes on, who thought they were written off, thinking yes I've got another chance and I can provide for my family again.
Self-belief is infectious and I want it to spread again throughout our country especially through the poorest places where Labour let hope fade away.
In Britain today, there are entrepreneurs everywhere - they just don't know it yet. Success stories everywhere - they just haven't been written yet. We must be the people who release that potential.
(Continued in Next Post)
Last edited by racehorse on 10-08-2009 10:13 PM, edited 1 time in total.
racehorse
(Continued from Previous Post)
FINANCIAL REFORM
And just a quick word to the man who says he abolished boom and bust and then saved the world.
It was you Gordon Brown who designed the system of financial regulation that helped cause the financial crisis. You want to keep it the same. We say it needs to change.
That's why we will give back to the Bank of England its power to regulate the City powers that should never have been taken away.
BROKEN SOCIETY
But once we're generating economic growth - what are we going to do with it? What kind of society do we hope to build?
Look at Britain in 2009. It is, in so many ways, a great place to live. Great culture and arts, great diversity, great sport.
And think of the great sport coming up next year England in the World Cup, then the Olympics, then rugby and cricket too. And yes, let's get the Football World Cup here in 2018 as well.
But in Britain today there is a dark side as well. After twelve years of big government, we still have those stubborn social problems.
Poverty, crime, addiction. Failing schools. Sink estates. Broken homes.
The truth is, it's not just that big government has failed to solve these problems. Big government has all too often helped cause them by undermining the personal and social responsibility that should be the lifeblood of a strong society.
Just think of the signals we send out. To the family struggling to raise children, pay a mortgage, hold down a job.
"Stay together and we'll give you less; split up and we give you more."
To the young mum working part time, trying to earn something extra for her family "from every extra pound you earn we'll take back 96 pence."
Yes, 96 pence.
Let me say that again, slowly.
In Gordon Brown's Britain if you're a single mother with two kids earning £150 a week the withdrawal of benefits and the additional taxes mean that for every extra pound you earn, you keep just 4 pence.
What kind of incentive is that? Thirty years ago this party won an election fighting against 98 per cent tax rates on the richest. Today I want us to show even more anger about 96 per cent tax rates on the poorest.
And in that fight, there's one person this party can rely on. He's the man who has dedicated himself to the cause of social justice...and shown great courage in standing up for those least able to stand up for themselves. Iain Duncan Smith
And I am proud to announce today that if we win the election he will be responsible in government for bringing together all our work to help mend the broken society.
LABOUR AND POVERTY
Labour still have the arrogance to think that they are the ones who will fight poverty and deprivation.
On Monday, when we announced our plan to Get Britain Working you know what Labour called it? "Callous."
Excuse me? Who made the poorest poorer? Who left youth unemployment higher? Who made inequality greater?
No, not the wicked Tories... you, Labour: you're the ones that did this to our society.
So don't you dare lecture us about poverty. You have failed and it falls to us, the modern Conservative Party to fight for the poorest who you have let down.
FAMILY
We'll start with what is most important to me - and what I believe is most important for the country - families.
I believe that a stable, loving home is the most precious thing a child can have. Society begins at home. Responsibility starts at home. That's why we cannot be neutral on this.
Now I don't live in some fantasy land where every family is happily married with 2.4 kids. Nor am I going to stand here and pretend that family life is always easy.
But by recognising marriage and civil partnerships in the tax system and abolishing the couple penalty in the benefits system, we'll help make it that little bit easier.
But it's not just about money. It's also about emotional support, particularly in those fraught early years before children go to school. Labour understood this and we should acknowledge that.
That's why Sure Start will stay, and we'll improve it. We will keep flexible working, and extend it. And we will not just keep but transform something that was there long before Sure Start began - health visitors.
But making the country more family-friendly is not just about what government does. Responsibility goes much wider. It's about what we all do. It's about the way we live.
Why aren't we building homes with enough room for a family to sit round a table and actually eat a meal together?
It's about our culture. Why do so many magazines and websites and music videos make children insecure about the way they look or the experiences they haven't even had?
And it's about our society. We give our children more and more rights, and we trust our teachers less and less. We've got to stop treating children like adults and adults like children.
It is about everyone taking responsibility. The more that we as a society do, the less we will need government to do.
WELFARE
But you can't expect families to behave responsibly when the welfare system works in the opposite direction.
In welfare, big government has failed people in a big way. There are two million children in Britain growing up in homes where no-one works. Two million.
That is the highest in Europe. It is one in six children in our country.
We have to break this cycle of welfare dependency.
I got an email from a guy called Viv Williams. He lost his job last year and was desperate to get back into work. But he had a mortgage to pay so he went to register for Job Seeker's Allowance.
He'd twisted his ankle and walked in with a limp, so you know what they said? They told him he couldn't register for Job Seeker's Allowance because he wasn't fit to work so he'd have to go on incapacity benefit.
He told them there was nothing wrong with him, that he wanted to work. But no - he wasn't allowed to.
This is a man who wanted to take responsibility for himself and his family and the system said no, you've got to depend on the state.
As he says: "I told them, you're having a laugh." But it's not funny. The welfare system today sends out completely crazy signals.
We have got to turn it around and with Theresa May and David Freud in charge we will. We're going to make it clear: If you really cannot work, we'll look after you. But if you can work, you should work and not live off the hard work of others.
NHS
So we have to reform welfare and strengthen families. But when I think of my family, in the end there's only one thing that matters and that is that the people I love are healthy and well.
My family owes so much to the National Health Service. No, it is not perfect. But I tell you, when you're carrying a child in your arms to Accident and Emergency in the middle of the night and don't have to reach for your wallet it's a lot better than the alternative.
So we will never change the idea at the heart of our NHS, that healthcare in this country is free at the point of use and available to everyone based on need, not ability to pay.
But that doesn't mean the NHS shouldn't change. It has to change because for many people, the service isn't good enough. Mostly, that's not the fault of those who work in the NHS.
The fault lies with big government. With their endless targets and reorganisations, Labour have tried to run the NHS like a machine.
But it's not a machine full of cogs. It is a living, breathing institution made up of people - doctors, nurses, patients.
This lever-pulling from above - it has got to stop. With Andrew Lansley's reform plans, we're going to give the NHS back to people. We'll say to the doctors: those targets you hate, they're gone.
But in return, we'll do more for patients. Choice about where you get treated. Information about how good different doctors are, how good different hospitals are.
Information about the things that really matter, cancer survival times......the rate of hospital infections......your chances of surviving if you have a stroke.
We will give doctors back their professional responsibility.
But in exchange they will be subject to patient accountability. That's why we can look the British people in the eye and say this party is the party of the NHS now, today, tomorrow, always.
CRIME
The instinct to protect the people we love is so strong. Nearly two years ago it was that instinct - that love - that drove Fiona Pilkington to do something desperate.
When I first read her story in the paper I found it difficult to finish the article - it's one of the saddest things I've ever read.
Fiona was so driven to despair by the vile thugs that bullied her and her lovely disabled daughter Francecca and by the police that didn't answer her cries for help that she could only see one way out. She put her daughter in her car, drove to a lay-by, and set it on fire.
If no one would protect them then by ending their lives, she was keeping them safe.
No one could hurt them anymore. Just think about what we allowed to happen here in our country. This goes deep and it's been going on for years.
It is about a breakdown of all the things that are meant to keep us safe......a complete breakdown of responsibility.
A breakdown of morality in the minds of those thugs a total absence of feeling or conscience. A breakdown in community where a neighbour is left to reach a pitch of utter misery. And a breakdown of our criminal justice system.
Every part of it, the police, the prosecution services, the prisons......is failing under the weight of big government targets and bureaucracy. The police aren't on the streets because they're busy complying with ten different inspection regimes. The police say the CPS isn't charging people...because they have to hit targets to reduce the number of unsuccessful trials.
And the prisons aren't rehabilitating offenders...because they're focused on meeting thirty-three different performance indicators.
This all needs to change. I'm not going to stand here and promise you a country where nothing bad ever happens. I do not underestimate how difficult it will be to deal with this problem of crime and disorder.
We cannot rebuild social responsibility from on high. But the least we can do the least we can do is pledge to all the people who are scared, who live their lives in fear and who can't protect themselves, that a Conservative Government, with Chris Grayling, with Dominic Grieve, will reform the police, reform the courts, reform prisons. We will be there to protect you.
TERRORISM
We understand too the grave responsibility we will have to protect our people from terrorism. This party knows only too well the pain and grief that terrorism brings.
Twenty-five years ago, almost to the day on the Thursday night of our party conference in Brighton, the IRA exploded a bomb that injured and killed good friends and colleagues.
Today let us honour their memory and send our thoughts and best wishes to all those, including Margaret Tebbit, who still bear the scars of that terrible night.
SCHOOLS
To build a responsible society we need to teach our children properly. I come at education as a parent, not a politician.
When I watch my daughter skip across the playground to start her first term in year one, I want to know that every penny of the education budget is following her and the other children into that school and that classroom.
So when I see Ed Balls blow hundreds of millions on so-called "curriculum development" on consultancies, on quangos like the QCDA and BECTA like every other parent with a child at a state school I want to say:
This is my child, it's my money, give it to my headteacher instead of wasting it in Whitehall.
But it's not just about money. It's about values. We know that discipline is vital but we overrule head teachers when they exclude a disruptive pupil.
We know that every child has different abilities and different needs but too often we put them all in the same class so the brightest aren't stretched and those who are struggling fall behind.
We know that competitive sport is important but we've had minister after minister promising it and nothing ever happens.
Discipline. Setting by ability. Regular sport.
These are all things you find in a private school. Not because the Government tells them to do it, but because it's what parents want. Why can't parents in state schools always get what they want?
With us, they will, because our reforms will create more good schools and more school places. Yes, our plans will increase competition - and no, that is not a dirty word. It means that when a good new school opens down the road, the other ones around it will want to improve. Big government has totally failed in state education and with Michael Gove we will get the radical change we need.
(Continued in Next Post)
FINANCIAL REFORM
And just a quick word to the man who says he abolished boom and bust and then saved the world.
It was you Gordon Brown who designed the system of financial regulation that helped cause the financial crisis. You want to keep it the same. We say it needs to change.
That's why we will give back to the Bank of England its power to regulate the City powers that should never have been taken away.
BROKEN SOCIETY
But once we're generating economic growth - what are we going to do with it? What kind of society do we hope to build?
Look at Britain in 2009. It is, in so many ways, a great place to live. Great culture and arts, great diversity, great sport.
And think of the great sport coming up next year England in the World Cup, then the Olympics, then rugby and cricket too. And yes, let's get the Football World Cup here in 2018 as well.
But in Britain today there is a dark side as well. After twelve years of big government, we still have those stubborn social problems.
Poverty, crime, addiction. Failing schools. Sink estates. Broken homes.
The truth is, it's not just that big government has failed to solve these problems. Big government has all too often helped cause them by undermining the personal and social responsibility that should be the lifeblood of a strong society.
Just think of the signals we send out. To the family struggling to raise children, pay a mortgage, hold down a job.
"Stay together and we'll give you less; split up and we give you more."
To the young mum working part time, trying to earn something extra for her family "from every extra pound you earn we'll take back 96 pence."
Yes, 96 pence.
Let me say that again, slowly.
In Gordon Brown's Britain if you're a single mother with two kids earning £150 a week the withdrawal of benefits and the additional taxes mean that for every extra pound you earn, you keep just 4 pence.
What kind of incentive is that? Thirty years ago this party won an election fighting against 98 per cent tax rates on the richest. Today I want us to show even more anger about 96 per cent tax rates on the poorest.
And in that fight, there's one person this party can rely on. He's the man who has dedicated himself to the cause of social justice...and shown great courage in standing up for those least able to stand up for themselves. Iain Duncan Smith
And I am proud to announce today that if we win the election he will be responsible in government for bringing together all our work to help mend the broken society.
LABOUR AND POVERTY
Labour still have the arrogance to think that they are the ones who will fight poverty and deprivation.
On Monday, when we announced our plan to Get Britain Working you know what Labour called it? "Callous."
Excuse me? Who made the poorest poorer? Who left youth unemployment higher? Who made inequality greater?
No, not the wicked Tories... you, Labour: you're the ones that did this to our society.
So don't you dare lecture us about poverty. You have failed and it falls to us, the modern Conservative Party to fight for the poorest who you have let down.
FAMILY
We'll start with what is most important to me - and what I believe is most important for the country - families.
I believe that a stable, loving home is the most precious thing a child can have. Society begins at home. Responsibility starts at home. That's why we cannot be neutral on this.
Now I don't live in some fantasy land where every family is happily married with 2.4 kids. Nor am I going to stand here and pretend that family life is always easy.
But by recognising marriage and civil partnerships in the tax system and abolishing the couple penalty in the benefits system, we'll help make it that little bit easier.
But it's not just about money. It's also about emotional support, particularly in those fraught early years before children go to school. Labour understood this and we should acknowledge that.
That's why Sure Start will stay, and we'll improve it. We will keep flexible working, and extend it. And we will not just keep but transform something that was there long before Sure Start began - health visitors.
But making the country more family-friendly is not just about what government does. Responsibility goes much wider. It's about what we all do. It's about the way we live.
Why aren't we building homes with enough room for a family to sit round a table and actually eat a meal together?
It's about our culture. Why do so many magazines and websites and music videos make children insecure about the way they look or the experiences they haven't even had?
And it's about our society. We give our children more and more rights, and we trust our teachers less and less. We've got to stop treating children like adults and adults like children.
It is about everyone taking responsibility. The more that we as a society do, the less we will need government to do.
WELFARE
But you can't expect families to behave responsibly when the welfare system works in the opposite direction.
In welfare, big government has failed people in a big way. There are two million children in Britain growing up in homes where no-one works. Two million.
That is the highest in Europe. It is one in six children in our country.
We have to break this cycle of welfare dependency.
I got an email from a guy called Viv Williams. He lost his job last year and was desperate to get back into work. But he had a mortgage to pay so he went to register for Job Seeker's Allowance.
He'd twisted his ankle and walked in with a limp, so you know what they said? They told him he couldn't register for Job Seeker's Allowance because he wasn't fit to work so he'd have to go on incapacity benefit.
He told them there was nothing wrong with him, that he wanted to work. But no - he wasn't allowed to.
This is a man who wanted to take responsibility for himself and his family and the system said no, you've got to depend on the state.
As he says: "I told them, you're having a laugh." But it's not funny. The welfare system today sends out completely crazy signals.
We have got to turn it around and with Theresa May and David Freud in charge we will. We're going to make it clear: If you really cannot work, we'll look after you. But if you can work, you should work and not live off the hard work of others.
NHS
So we have to reform welfare and strengthen families. But when I think of my family, in the end there's only one thing that matters and that is that the people I love are healthy and well.
My family owes so much to the National Health Service. No, it is not perfect. But I tell you, when you're carrying a child in your arms to Accident and Emergency in the middle of the night and don't have to reach for your wallet it's a lot better than the alternative.
So we will never change the idea at the heart of our NHS, that healthcare in this country is free at the point of use and available to everyone based on need, not ability to pay.
But that doesn't mean the NHS shouldn't change. It has to change because for many people, the service isn't good enough. Mostly, that's not the fault of those who work in the NHS.
The fault lies with big government. With their endless targets and reorganisations, Labour have tried to run the NHS like a machine.
But it's not a machine full of cogs. It is a living, breathing institution made up of people - doctors, nurses, patients.
This lever-pulling from above - it has got to stop. With Andrew Lansley's reform plans, we're going to give the NHS back to people. We'll say to the doctors: those targets you hate, they're gone.
But in return, we'll do more for patients. Choice about where you get treated. Information about how good different doctors are, how good different hospitals are.
Information about the things that really matter, cancer survival times......the rate of hospital infections......your chances of surviving if you have a stroke.
We will give doctors back their professional responsibility.
But in exchange they will be subject to patient accountability. That's why we can look the British people in the eye and say this party is the party of the NHS now, today, tomorrow, always.
CRIME
The instinct to protect the people we love is so strong. Nearly two years ago it was that instinct - that love - that drove Fiona Pilkington to do something desperate.
When I first read her story in the paper I found it difficult to finish the article - it's one of the saddest things I've ever read.
Fiona was so driven to despair by the vile thugs that bullied her and her lovely disabled daughter Francecca and by the police that didn't answer her cries for help that she could only see one way out. She put her daughter in her car, drove to a lay-by, and set it on fire.
If no one would protect them then by ending their lives, she was keeping them safe.
No one could hurt them anymore. Just think about what we allowed to happen here in our country. This goes deep and it's been going on for years.
It is about a breakdown of all the things that are meant to keep us safe......a complete breakdown of responsibility.
A breakdown of morality in the minds of those thugs a total absence of feeling or conscience. A breakdown in community where a neighbour is left to reach a pitch of utter misery. And a breakdown of our criminal justice system.
Every part of it, the police, the prosecution services, the prisons......is failing under the weight of big government targets and bureaucracy. The police aren't on the streets because they're busy complying with ten different inspection regimes. The police say the CPS isn't charging people...because they have to hit targets to reduce the number of unsuccessful trials.
And the prisons aren't rehabilitating offenders...because they're focused on meeting thirty-three different performance indicators.
This all needs to change. I'm not going to stand here and promise you a country where nothing bad ever happens. I do not underestimate how difficult it will be to deal with this problem of crime and disorder.
We cannot rebuild social responsibility from on high. But the least we can do the least we can do is pledge to all the people who are scared, who live their lives in fear and who can't protect themselves, that a Conservative Government, with Chris Grayling, with Dominic Grieve, will reform the police, reform the courts, reform prisons. We will be there to protect you.
TERRORISM
We understand too the grave responsibility we will have to protect our people from terrorism. This party knows only too well the pain and grief that terrorism brings.
Twenty-five years ago, almost to the day on the Thursday night of our party conference in Brighton, the IRA exploded a bomb that injured and killed good friends and colleagues.
Today let us honour their memory and send our thoughts and best wishes to all those, including Margaret Tebbit, who still bear the scars of that terrible night.
SCHOOLS
To build a responsible society we need to teach our children properly. I come at education as a parent, not a politician.
When I watch my daughter skip across the playground to start her first term in year one, I want to know that every penny of the education budget is following her and the other children into that school and that classroom.
So when I see Ed Balls blow hundreds of millions on so-called "curriculum development" on consultancies, on quangos like the QCDA and BECTA like every other parent with a child at a state school I want to say:
This is my child, it's my money, give it to my headteacher instead of wasting it in Whitehall.
But it's not just about money. It's about values. We know that discipline is vital but we overrule head teachers when they exclude a disruptive pupil.
We know that every child has different abilities and different needs but too often we put them all in the same class so the brightest aren't stretched and those who are struggling fall behind.
We know that competitive sport is important but we've had minister after minister promising it and nothing ever happens.
Discipline. Setting by ability. Regular sport.
These are all things you find in a private school. Not because the Government tells them to do it, but because it's what parents want. Why can't parents in state schools always get what they want?
With us, they will, because our reforms will create more good schools and more school places. Yes, our plans will increase competition - and no, that is not a dirty word. It means that when a good new school opens down the road, the other ones around it will want to improve. Big government has totally failed in state education and with Michael Gove we will get the radical change we need.
(Continued in Next Post)
racehorse
(Continued from Previous Post)
COUNTRY
Family, community, country. In recent years we've been hearing things about our country we haven't heard for a long time. People saying they don't know what it is to be British, what this country stands for.
People in Scotland who want to leave the United Kingdom and people in England who say let them go.
I am passionate about our Union and I will never do anything to put it at risk. And because of the new political force we have created with the Ulster Unionists, I'm proud that at the next election we will be the only party fielding candidates in every part of the United Kingdom.
Britishness is not mechanical, it's organic. It's an emotional connection to a way of life, an attitude, a set of institutions.
Make these stronger and our national identity becomes stronger. To be British is to be open-minded.
We don't care who you are or where you're from, if you've got something to offer then this is a place you can call home.
But if we want our country to carry on with this proud, open tradition, we've got to understand the pressures of mass immigration and that's why we need to put limits on it.
To be British is to be generous. Whenever there's a disaster on the other side of the world, British people dig deep into their pockets and give their money. Comic Relief didn't raise less money this year because of the recession - it raised more.
That says big things about our country, and government should reflect that. That's why I'm proud that we've ring-fenced the budget for international development.
To be British is to be sceptical of authority and the powers-that-be.
That's why ID cards, 42 days and Labour's surveillance state are so utterly unacceptable and why we will sweep the whole rotten edifice away.
And to be British is to have an instinctive love of the countryside and the natural world. The dangers of climate change are stark and very real. If we don't act now, and act quickly, we could face disaster.
Yes, we need to change the way we live. But is that such a bad thing? The insatiable consumption and materialism of the past decade, has it made us happier or more fulfilled?
Yes, we have to put our faith in technologies. But that is not a giant leap. Just around the corner are new green technologies, unimaginable a decade ago, that can change the way we live, travel, work.
And yes, we need global co-operation. But that shouldn't be difficult. It just takes leadership, and that's what we need at the Copenhagen summit this December.
POLITICS
But if you care about our country, you've got to care about the health of our institutions. And today one of them, more than any other, is in a serious state of decline.
Our parliament used to be a beacon to the world. But the expenses scandal made it a laughing stock.
We apologised to the public, paid back the money that shouldn't have been claimed......and published all our expenses online to help stop this happening again.
We've led the way in other areas too......MPs' pay and pensions, cutting the cost of politics. But let me make something clear - this is not over.
We are just starting the job of building the new politics we need. Because the anger over expenses reflected something deeper. The sense that people have been left powerless by big government.
So it is time to shake things up. We need to redistribute power and responsibility. It's your community and you should have control over it......so we need decentralisation. It's your money and you should know what is being done with it......so we need transparency. It's your life that's affected by political decisions and the people who make those decisions should answer to you, so we need accountability.
EU
But if there is one political institution that needs decentralisation, transparency, and accountability, it is the EU.
For the past few decades, something strange has been happening on the left of British politics. People who think of themselves as progressives have fallen in love with an institution that no one elects, no one can remove, and that hasn't signed off its accounts for over a decade.
Indeed even to question these things is, apparently, completely beyond the pale. Well, here is a progressive reform plan for Europe.
Let's work together on the things where the EU can really help, like combating climate change, fighting global poverty and spreading free and fair trade.
But let's return to democratic and accountable politics the powers the EU shouldn't have.
And if we win the election, we will have as the strongest voice for our country's interests, the man who is leading our campaign for a referendum, the man who will be our new British Foreign Secretary: William Hague.
WHAT WE CAN PROMISE
Family, community, country.
Recognising that what holds society together is responsibility......and that the good society is a responsible society. That's what I'm about - that's what any government I lead will be about.
The problems we face are big and urgent. Rebuilding our broken economy......because unless we do, our children will be saddled with debt for decades to come.
Mending our broken society......because unless we do, we will never solve those stubborn social problems that cause the size of government to rise.
Fixing our broken politics......because unless we do, we will never reform public services......never see the strong, powerful citizens...who will build the responsible society that we all want to see.
This week you've heard about our plans, our policies, the changes we want to make and the team to put them in place.
But I know that whatever plans you make in Opposition, it's the unpredictable events that come to dominate a government.
And it's your character, your temperament and your judgment, not your policies and your manifesto - that really make the difference.
You can never prove you're ready for everything that will come your way as Prime Minister. But you can point to the judgments you've made. And you can learn from the mistakes that others have made.
I've seen what happens when you win and you waste your mandate obsessing about the 24 hour news cycle and fighting each day as if it's a new general election, ducking the difficult things that would have really made a difference.
That was Blair. And I've seen what happens when you turn every decision into a political calculation. That was - that is - Brown.
So I won't promise things I cannot deliver. But I can look you in the eye and tell you that in a Conservative Britain:
If you put in the effort to bring in a wage, you will be better off. If you save money your whole life, you'll be rewarded. If you start your own business, we'll be right behind you. If you want to raise a family, we'll support you. If you're frightened, we'll protect you.If you risk your safety to stop a crime, we'll stand by you. If you risk your life to fight for your country, we will honour you.
Ask me what a Conservative government stands for and the answer is this, we will reward those who take responsibility, and care for those who can't.
CONCLUSION
So if we cut big government back. If we move society forward.
And if we rebuild responsibility, then we can put Britain back on her feet.I know that today there aren't many reasons to be cheerful.
But there are reasons to believe. Yes it will be a steep climb. But the view from the summit will be worth it. Let me tell you what I can see.
I see a country where more children grow up with security and love because family life comes first. I see a country where you choose the most important things in life - the school your child goes to and the healthcare you get. I see a country where communities govern themselves - organising local services, independent of Whitehall, a great handing back of power to people.
I see a country with entrepreneurs everywhere, bringing their ideas to life - and life to our great towns and cities. I see a country where it's not just about the quantity of money, but the quality of life - where we lead the world in saving our planet. I see a country where you're not so afraid to walk home alone, where you're safe in the knowledge that right and wrong is restored to law and order.
I see a country where the poorest children go to the best schools not the worst, where birth is never a barrier.
No, we will not make it if we pull in different directions, follow our own interests, take care of only ourselves.
But if we pull together, come together, work together - we will get through this together.
And when we look back we will say not that the government made it happen...
...not that the minister made it happen...
...but the businesswoman made it happen...
...the police officer made it happen...
...the father made it happen...
...the teacher made it happen.
You made it happen.
--
David Cameron is a British MP and head of the Conservative Party.
COUNTRY
Family, community, country. In recent years we've been hearing things about our country we haven't heard for a long time. People saying they don't know what it is to be British, what this country stands for.
People in Scotland who want to leave the United Kingdom and people in England who say let them go.
I am passionate about our Union and I will never do anything to put it at risk. And because of the new political force we have created with the Ulster Unionists, I'm proud that at the next election we will be the only party fielding candidates in every part of the United Kingdom.
Britishness is not mechanical, it's organic. It's an emotional connection to a way of life, an attitude, a set of institutions.
Make these stronger and our national identity becomes stronger. To be British is to be open-minded.
We don't care who you are or where you're from, if you've got something to offer then this is a place you can call home.
But if we want our country to carry on with this proud, open tradition, we've got to understand the pressures of mass immigration and that's why we need to put limits on it.
To be British is to be generous. Whenever there's a disaster on the other side of the world, British people dig deep into their pockets and give their money. Comic Relief didn't raise less money this year because of the recession - it raised more.
That says big things about our country, and government should reflect that. That's why I'm proud that we've ring-fenced the budget for international development.
To be British is to be sceptical of authority and the powers-that-be.
That's why ID cards, 42 days and Labour's surveillance state are so utterly unacceptable and why we will sweep the whole rotten edifice away.
And to be British is to have an instinctive love of the countryside and the natural world. The dangers of climate change are stark and very real. If we don't act now, and act quickly, we could face disaster.
Yes, we need to change the way we live. But is that such a bad thing? The insatiable consumption and materialism of the past decade, has it made us happier or more fulfilled?
Yes, we have to put our faith in technologies. But that is not a giant leap. Just around the corner are new green technologies, unimaginable a decade ago, that can change the way we live, travel, work.
And yes, we need global co-operation. But that shouldn't be difficult. It just takes leadership, and that's what we need at the Copenhagen summit this December.
POLITICS
But if you care about our country, you've got to care about the health of our institutions. And today one of them, more than any other, is in a serious state of decline.
Our parliament used to be a beacon to the world. But the expenses scandal made it a laughing stock.
We apologised to the public, paid back the money that shouldn't have been claimed......and published all our expenses online to help stop this happening again.
We've led the way in other areas too......MPs' pay and pensions, cutting the cost of politics. But let me make something clear - this is not over.
We are just starting the job of building the new politics we need. Because the anger over expenses reflected something deeper. The sense that people have been left powerless by big government.
So it is time to shake things up. We need to redistribute power and responsibility. It's your community and you should have control over it......so we need decentralisation. It's your money and you should know what is being done with it......so we need transparency. It's your life that's affected by political decisions and the people who make those decisions should answer to you, so we need accountability.
EU
But if there is one political institution that needs decentralisation, transparency, and accountability, it is the EU.
For the past few decades, something strange has been happening on the left of British politics. People who think of themselves as progressives have fallen in love with an institution that no one elects, no one can remove, and that hasn't signed off its accounts for over a decade.
Indeed even to question these things is, apparently, completely beyond the pale. Well, here is a progressive reform plan for Europe.
Let's work together on the things where the EU can really help, like combating climate change, fighting global poverty and spreading free and fair trade.
But let's return to democratic and accountable politics the powers the EU shouldn't have.
And if we win the election, we will have as the strongest voice for our country's interests, the man who is leading our campaign for a referendum, the man who will be our new British Foreign Secretary: William Hague.
WHAT WE CAN PROMISE
Family, community, country.
Recognising that what holds society together is responsibility......and that the good society is a responsible society. That's what I'm about - that's what any government I lead will be about.
The problems we face are big and urgent. Rebuilding our broken economy......because unless we do, our children will be saddled with debt for decades to come.
Mending our broken society......because unless we do, we will never solve those stubborn social problems that cause the size of government to rise.
Fixing our broken politics......because unless we do, we will never reform public services......never see the strong, powerful citizens...who will build the responsible society that we all want to see.
This week you've heard about our plans, our policies, the changes we want to make and the team to put them in place.
But I know that whatever plans you make in Opposition, it's the unpredictable events that come to dominate a government.
And it's your character, your temperament and your judgment, not your policies and your manifesto - that really make the difference.
You can never prove you're ready for everything that will come your way as Prime Minister. But you can point to the judgments you've made. And you can learn from the mistakes that others have made.
I've seen what happens when you win and you waste your mandate obsessing about the 24 hour news cycle and fighting each day as if it's a new general election, ducking the difficult things that would have really made a difference.
That was Blair. And I've seen what happens when you turn every decision into a political calculation. That was - that is - Brown.
So I won't promise things I cannot deliver. But I can look you in the eye and tell you that in a Conservative Britain:
If you put in the effort to bring in a wage, you will be better off. If you save money your whole life, you'll be rewarded. If you start your own business, we'll be right behind you. If you want to raise a family, we'll support you. If you're frightened, we'll protect you.If you risk your safety to stop a crime, we'll stand by you. If you risk your life to fight for your country, we will honour you.
Ask me what a Conservative government stands for and the answer is this, we will reward those who take responsibility, and care for those who can't.
CONCLUSION
So if we cut big government back. If we move society forward.
And if we rebuild responsibility, then we can put Britain back on her feet.I know that today there aren't many reasons to be cheerful.
But there are reasons to believe. Yes it will be a steep climb. But the view from the summit will be worth it. Let me tell you what I can see.
I see a country where more children grow up with security and love because family life comes first. I see a country where you choose the most important things in life - the school your child goes to and the healthcare you get. I see a country where communities govern themselves - organising local services, independent of Whitehall, a great handing back of power to people.
I see a country with entrepreneurs everywhere, bringing their ideas to life - and life to our great towns and cities. I see a country where it's not just about the quantity of money, but the quality of life - where we lead the world in saving our planet. I see a country where you're not so afraid to walk home alone, where you're safe in the knowledge that right and wrong is restored to law and order.
I see a country where the poorest children go to the best schools not the worst, where birth is never a barrier.
No, we will not make it if we pull in different directions, follow our own interests, take care of only ourselves.
But if we pull together, come together, work together - we will get through this together.
And when we look back we will say not that the government made it happen...
...not that the minister made it happen...
...but the businesswoman made it happen...
...the police officer made it happen...
...the father made it happen...
...the teacher made it happen.
You made it happen.
--
David Cameron is a British MP and head of the Conservative Party.
Last edited by racehorse on 10-08-2009 10:11 PM, edited 1 time in total.
racehorse
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/P ... m.asp?pg=2
Cameron's Turn at Bat
Hope and change, Tory style.
by Irwin M. Stelzer
10/19/2009, Volume 015, Issue 05
Manchester
There is something reassuringly familiar about a Tory party conference--the annual gathering of Britain's conservatives. Lots of smartly dressed investment bankers holding down or angling for seats in the Mother of Parliaments; lots of personal assistants who, according to the Times of London, are well groomed, privately educated, and named Daisy, Rosie, or Poppy. But it took some doing to get over the party's chosen slogan for the coming election campaign: "Ready for Change." Too close to what Obama has in mind for us colonials.
But it's probably an accurate description of the mood of British voters. The opinion polls show the Tories with a large enough lead to win a majority in the next parliament, and to survive almost any unpredictable event that might occur between now and the election, most likely to be called in May of next year.
Gordon Brown, the current occupant of No. 10 Downing Street, is not only beyond uncharismatic, but presides over a country that has a soaring deficit, a depreciating currency, rising unemployment, and busted banks. All of this hit after Brown squandered Treasury revenues during the fat years on a massive expansion of public sector payrolls, financed by a series of what here are called "stealth taxes"--60 in all by most counts.
Worse still has been the rise in crime to a point where there are very few places one would walk about in the evening. A generation of feral children prowl the streets, with public drunkenness making many city centers no-go zones on weekends. A refusal to fund new prison construction means that even hardened criminals with multiple convictions are given early release for lack of cells. Meanwhile, the welfare system makes it utterly irrational for millions to choose jobs over the dole and disability benefits. Throw in the fact that Brown ostentatiously flirted with the idea of facing the electorate before abandoning it in the face of bad poll numbers ("bottling out" is the English expression) and you have a conviction on the part of the Tories that the election is in the bag almost no matter what they do. In private, most Labour MPs agree and are preparing for a long spell in opposition--or for careers in the private sector.
Still, the prime minister in waiting, young Etonian and former public relations man David Cameron, warned his party, "This is not some week of celebration." Delegates were told not to be photographed in a celebratory mood--which made it unfortunate that Cameron was photographed by a leading tabloid swilling champagne.
Cameron has brought the party a long way since the days when it was riven by feuds between those who deposed Margaret Thatcher and those who remained loyal to the Iron Lady, its candidates unable to compete with the charismatic Tony Blair, its policies mired in the days when the hang‑'em-and-flog‑'em set dominated party conferences. A long way, but not far enough to convince more than 28 percent of voters that he has fundamentally changed the party. Voters know that if the Tories win a substantial majority, close to 200 of its MPs will come from business and banking backgrounds--and such things matter in a Britain still aware of class distinctions. So the Tories had to tread carefully as they set out their electoral stall.
It goes something like this: Britain is broken--for all the reasons listed above. It is time for a change. We will build prisons to house 5,000 more miscreants. We will reform the educational system to emphasize discipline and the three Rs, introduce the Swedish-style system that allows parents and entrepreneurs to build and run schools, with the state providing £5,000 per student, and give the best state schools complete independence. We will change the tax structure to encourage marriage. We will tax the high-alcohol drinks that the young quaff until oblivious and prevent supermarkets from selling them at a loss. And we will require anyone receiving disability benefits to undergo a medical examination to prove he or she is unable to work. All of this is part of an effort to repair the torn social fabric of "broken Britain." But these are details. Cameron is most concerned about shoring up the family, which he told a cheering conference is the rock on which communities, and in turn a civil society, are built. He wants to shrink government, eliminate its intrusive inspections and rules, and encourage individual responsibility.
But Britain is not only broken, but broke. On the economic front there is to be a new austerity to cope with the massive deficit. The cost of government will be reduced, in part by cutting the number of MPs by 10 percent, and by the usual assault on waste and inefficiency, although potential ministers are having a hard time identifying any such. With the exception of the lowest paid and the military, pay for public sector workers is to be frozen for a year, but there will be no significant layoffs in a sector bloated by Labour's addition of 800,000 workers as it built its client state. Retirement ages will gradually increase. Benefits to the middle class are to be reduced, as are ministers' salaries. Pensions to new MPs are to be capped. And a new marginal tax rate of 50 percent (up from 40 percent) will be imposed on high earners, part of the shadow chancellor's pledge, repeated eight times in a 30-minute speech, to adopt policies that recognize that "We are all in this together," which is intended to be the modern Tory equivalent of Benjamin -Disraeli's "One Nation Toryism," described by its present-day enthusiasts as "a national community from which no citizen is excluded." Whether modern Tories are true heirs to Disraeli's vision is another matter.
But some features of the welfare state will remain. The weekly child benefit of between $20 and $32 per child, depending on age, will continue to be paid, but only to families earning less than $80,000 (£50,000) per year; free television for pensioners will remain (they will not have to buy the mandatory license to watch TV and support the bloated BBC); and winter fuel payments will be made to everyone, regardless of income.
As a political matter, the Tories must move in the direction of "We are all in this together" if they are to overcome the fact that the leadership is dominated by a small group of rather wealthy (inherited in many cases) men. So far, they have succeeded. In a recent election for a vacated parliamentary seat, Labour played the class card, following the Tory around dressed in tuxedos, and lost by a large margin. But Cameron knows that even the English heartland that forms the core of his support has changed since the last time the Tories won an election in 1992. Then, 6 percent of voters in England were nonwhite; that percentage has doubled. And in the rest of the country the change is even greater.
The Tories are helped by the fact that Labour, too, recognizes it must pare spending. Brown is trying to distinguish his cuts from those proposed by Cameron, claiming he is restraining spending out of necessity, while the Tories actually enjoy the exercise. Both parties have said they will continue to increase real (inflation-adjusted) spending on the National Health Service, which accounts for some 15 percent of the British budget, and the Tories have also "ring-fenced" aid to developing countries--to show that they are as sympathetic to the plight of the world's poor as Bono, who visited the conference via video. Unfortunately, British aid also goes to China, with which Britain has so far been unable to compete in many product markets.
To further embellish their image as a party with a heart as well as wallets and brains (Tory bigs Oliver Letwin, David Willetts, and Michael Gove are included on anyone's list of high IQ talents, although only Gove makes the list of future PMs), the Tories are leading the attack on greedy bankers, and promising to use the tax code to wrest from them any undue profits.
So there you have it: a modern, One Nation Tory party, preparing to lead the nation back from the financial brink to which Gordon Brown's policies have brought it, and to restore civility and safety to British life. Britain is broke and broken, and the Tories aim to fix it.
But they do not aim to restore its influence. Yes, Cameron is already angling for a White House meeting with Obama, who has given Brown what can only be described as short shrift, so that he can seem to have influence with America and try to coordinate Britain's Afghan policy with that of the United States. But like Brown, he is unprepared to increase spending on the military to much more than 2-3 percent of GDP, inadequate to meet current commitments much less maintain a properly equipped, consequential force in Afghanistan. So I am told by people at the highest level of the Tory party who know about spending plans, and top military staff who know how little they will be able to do with the available funds. Cameron wants to honor his troops, but sees them not as nation-builders ("We are not in Afghanistan to deliver the perfect society") but as trainers of Afghans so that they can prevent the reestablishment of terrorist training camps. "Then we can bring our troops home."
There is, of course, the small matter of an election. No one believes Labour can win--Brown is simply too unpopular. He has made one final throw of the dice by agreeing to three presidential-style debates with Cameron and with the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg. Brown hopes that his knowledge of economics, and the Keynesian steps he has taken to prevent the recession from worsening, will contrast nicely with Cameron's less sure grasp of fiscal and monetary policy. Cameron is betting that his persona and style will contrast nicely with Brown, described by his predecessor Tony Blair as a "big clunking fist," and recently seen to storm off a television interview because he was asked if he is on tranquilizers. Clegg is just hoping someone will notice him.
One thing is certain: No matter who wins the election, the days of an expanding welfare state are over, temporarily in the unlikely event of a Labour victory, permanently if the Tories win and carry out their plan to reduce the role of the state in the lives of British citizens. Brown and Cameron seem to have coherent but very different views of the relationship between the state and the individual. Brown believes in a strong, central state that should set detailed targets for doctors, cops, teachers--and tell them how to meet those targets. He also believes that the state has a legitimate claim on about half of all the wealth produced by its citizens, and should use that money to expand the welfare state. Cameron believes in devolving responsibility to families and individuals, allowing schools to develop different programs for the brightest and for those most in need of help, and most of all in restoring the sense of personal responsibility that he believes an overweening state has sapped. At last: an election about social values, economic policy, and the relationship of citizens to their state. Worth watching.
--
Irwin M. Stelzer is a contributing editor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London).
Cameron's Turn at Bat
Hope and change, Tory style.
by Irwin M. Stelzer
10/19/2009, Volume 015, Issue 05
Manchester
There is something reassuringly familiar about a Tory party conference--the annual gathering of Britain's conservatives. Lots of smartly dressed investment bankers holding down or angling for seats in the Mother of Parliaments; lots of personal assistants who, according to the Times of London, are well groomed, privately educated, and named Daisy, Rosie, or Poppy. But it took some doing to get over the party's chosen slogan for the coming election campaign: "Ready for Change." Too close to what Obama has in mind for us colonials.
But it's probably an accurate description of the mood of British voters. The opinion polls show the Tories with a large enough lead to win a majority in the next parliament, and to survive almost any unpredictable event that might occur between now and the election, most likely to be called in May of next year.
Gordon Brown, the current occupant of No. 10 Downing Street, is not only beyond uncharismatic, but presides over a country that has a soaring deficit, a depreciating currency, rising unemployment, and busted banks. All of this hit after Brown squandered Treasury revenues during the fat years on a massive expansion of public sector payrolls, financed by a series of what here are called "stealth taxes"--60 in all by most counts.
Worse still has been the rise in crime to a point where there are very few places one would walk about in the evening. A generation of feral children prowl the streets, with public drunkenness making many city centers no-go zones on weekends. A refusal to fund new prison construction means that even hardened criminals with multiple convictions are given early release for lack of cells. Meanwhile, the welfare system makes it utterly irrational for millions to choose jobs over the dole and disability benefits. Throw in the fact that Brown ostentatiously flirted with the idea of facing the electorate before abandoning it in the face of bad poll numbers ("bottling out" is the English expression) and you have a conviction on the part of the Tories that the election is in the bag almost no matter what they do. In private, most Labour MPs agree and are preparing for a long spell in opposition--or for careers in the private sector.
Still, the prime minister in waiting, young Etonian and former public relations man David Cameron, warned his party, "This is not some week of celebration." Delegates were told not to be photographed in a celebratory mood--which made it unfortunate that Cameron was photographed by a leading tabloid swilling champagne.
Cameron has brought the party a long way since the days when it was riven by feuds between those who deposed Margaret Thatcher and those who remained loyal to the Iron Lady, its candidates unable to compete with the charismatic Tony Blair, its policies mired in the days when the hang‑'em-and-flog‑'em set dominated party conferences. A long way, but not far enough to convince more than 28 percent of voters that he has fundamentally changed the party. Voters know that if the Tories win a substantial majority, close to 200 of its MPs will come from business and banking backgrounds--and such things matter in a Britain still aware of class distinctions. So the Tories had to tread carefully as they set out their electoral stall.
It goes something like this: Britain is broken--for all the reasons listed above. It is time for a change. We will build prisons to house 5,000 more miscreants. We will reform the educational system to emphasize discipline and the three Rs, introduce the Swedish-style system that allows parents and entrepreneurs to build and run schools, with the state providing £5,000 per student, and give the best state schools complete independence. We will change the tax structure to encourage marriage. We will tax the high-alcohol drinks that the young quaff until oblivious and prevent supermarkets from selling them at a loss. And we will require anyone receiving disability benefits to undergo a medical examination to prove he or she is unable to work. All of this is part of an effort to repair the torn social fabric of "broken Britain." But these are details. Cameron is most concerned about shoring up the family, which he told a cheering conference is the rock on which communities, and in turn a civil society, are built. He wants to shrink government, eliminate its intrusive inspections and rules, and encourage individual responsibility.
But Britain is not only broken, but broke. On the economic front there is to be a new austerity to cope with the massive deficit. The cost of government will be reduced, in part by cutting the number of MPs by 10 percent, and by the usual assault on waste and inefficiency, although potential ministers are having a hard time identifying any such. With the exception of the lowest paid and the military, pay for public sector workers is to be frozen for a year, but there will be no significant layoffs in a sector bloated by Labour's addition of 800,000 workers as it built its client state. Retirement ages will gradually increase. Benefits to the middle class are to be reduced, as are ministers' salaries. Pensions to new MPs are to be capped. And a new marginal tax rate of 50 percent (up from 40 percent) will be imposed on high earners, part of the shadow chancellor's pledge, repeated eight times in a 30-minute speech, to adopt policies that recognize that "We are all in this together," which is intended to be the modern Tory equivalent of Benjamin -Disraeli's "One Nation Toryism," described by its present-day enthusiasts as "a national community from which no citizen is excluded." Whether modern Tories are true heirs to Disraeli's vision is another matter.
But some features of the welfare state will remain. The weekly child benefit of between $20 and $32 per child, depending on age, will continue to be paid, but only to families earning less than $80,000 (£50,000) per year; free television for pensioners will remain (they will not have to buy the mandatory license to watch TV and support the bloated BBC); and winter fuel payments will be made to everyone, regardless of income.
As a political matter, the Tories must move in the direction of "We are all in this together" if they are to overcome the fact that the leadership is dominated by a small group of rather wealthy (inherited in many cases) men. So far, they have succeeded. In a recent election for a vacated parliamentary seat, Labour played the class card, following the Tory around dressed in tuxedos, and lost by a large margin. But Cameron knows that even the English heartland that forms the core of his support has changed since the last time the Tories won an election in 1992. Then, 6 percent of voters in England were nonwhite; that percentage has doubled. And in the rest of the country the change is even greater.
The Tories are helped by the fact that Labour, too, recognizes it must pare spending. Brown is trying to distinguish his cuts from those proposed by Cameron, claiming he is restraining spending out of necessity, while the Tories actually enjoy the exercise. Both parties have said they will continue to increase real (inflation-adjusted) spending on the National Health Service, which accounts for some 15 percent of the British budget, and the Tories have also "ring-fenced" aid to developing countries--to show that they are as sympathetic to the plight of the world's poor as Bono, who visited the conference via video. Unfortunately, British aid also goes to China, with which Britain has so far been unable to compete in many product markets.
To further embellish their image as a party with a heart as well as wallets and brains (Tory bigs Oliver Letwin, David Willetts, and Michael Gove are included on anyone's list of high IQ talents, although only Gove makes the list of future PMs), the Tories are leading the attack on greedy bankers, and promising to use the tax code to wrest from them any undue profits.
So there you have it: a modern, One Nation Tory party, preparing to lead the nation back from the financial brink to which Gordon Brown's policies have brought it, and to restore civility and safety to British life. Britain is broke and broken, and the Tories aim to fix it.
But they do not aim to restore its influence. Yes, Cameron is already angling for a White House meeting with Obama, who has given Brown what can only be described as short shrift, so that he can seem to have influence with America and try to coordinate Britain's Afghan policy with that of the United States. But like Brown, he is unprepared to increase spending on the military to much more than 2-3 percent of GDP, inadequate to meet current commitments much less maintain a properly equipped, consequential force in Afghanistan. So I am told by people at the highest level of the Tory party who know about spending plans, and top military staff who know how little they will be able to do with the available funds. Cameron wants to honor his troops, but sees them not as nation-builders ("We are not in Afghanistan to deliver the perfect society") but as trainers of Afghans so that they can prevent the reestablishment of terrorist training camps. "Then we can bring our troops home."
There is, of course, the small matter of an election. No one believes Labour can win--Brown is simply too unpopular. He has made one final throw of the dice by agreeing to three presidential-style debates with Cameron and with the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg. Brown hopes that his knowledge of economics, and the Keynesian steps he has taken to prevent the recession from worsening, will contrast nicely with Cameron's less sure grasp of fiscal and monetary policy. Cameron is betting that his persona and style will contrast nicely with Brown, described by his predecessor Tony Blair as a "big clunking fist," and recently seen to storm off a television interview because he was asked if he is on tranquilizers. Clegg is just hoping someone will notice him.
One thing is certain: No matter who wins the election, the days of an expanding welfare state are over, temporarily in the unlikely event of a Labour victory, permanently if the Tories win and carry out their plan to reduce the role of the state in the lives of British citizens. Brown and Cameron seem to have coherent but very different views of the relationship between the state and the individual. Brown believes in a strong, central state that should set detailed targets for doctors, cops, teachers--and tell them how to meet those targets. He also believes that the state has a legitimate claim on about half of all the wealth produced by its citizens, and should use that money to expand the welfare state. Cameron believes in devolving responsibility to families and individuals, allowing schools to develop different programs for the brightest and for those most in need of help, and most of all in restoring the sense of personal responsibility that he believes an overweening state has sapped. At last: an election about social values, economic policy, and the relationship of citizens to their state. Worth watching.
--
Irwin M. Stelzer is a contributing editor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London).
racehorse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... abour.html
Conservatives regain 17-point lead over Labour
The Conservatives have regained a 17-point over Labour, following a brief dip during the conference season, according to the latest poll.
Published: 7:00AM BST 21 Oct 2009
Ipsos Mori's monthly political monitor had the Tories on 43 per cent (up seven points), Labour on 26 per cent (up two) and the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent (down six).
On the poll's results, David Cameron could expect a parliamentary majority of 100.
The findings suggest that the ''bounce'' the Lib Dems were enjoying at the time the Mori survey was last taken, immediately after their conference, has died away and the parties have returned to the positions they occupied before the annual autumn gatherings.
Economic confidence continues to improve, with 44 per cent saying they believed the economy will get better over the coming 12 months, compared to 23 per cent saying it will get worst - the highest level of optimism recorded by Mori since May 1997.
Satisfaction with Gordon Brown has improved since September, with 32 per cent approving of the way the Prime Minister is doing his job and 62 per cent disapproving - an overall satisfaction rating of minus-30, six points better than the previous month.
Mr Cameron's overall rating was plus-15, nine points up on last month, with 49 per cent expressing satisfaction with his performance as Tory leader and 34 per cent dissatisfaction. Satisfaction with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg fell to plus-17 (down four).
Almost a quarter of those questioned were satisfied with the way the Government is running the country and 72 per cent dissatisfied in the poll which interviewed 996 adults across Britain
Conservatives regain 17-point lead over Labour
The Conservatives have regained a 17-point over Labour, following a brief dip during the conference season, according to the latest poll.
Published: 7:00AM BST 21 Oct 2009
Ipsos Mori's monthly political monitor had the Tories on 43 per cent (up seven points), Labour on 26 per cent (up two) and the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent (down six).
On the poll's results, David Cameron could expect a parliamentary majority of 100.
The findings suggest that the ''bounce'' the Lib Dems were enjoying at the time the Mori survey was last taken, immediately after their conference, has died away and the parties have returned to the positions they occupied before the annual autumn gatherings.
Economic confidence continues to improve, with 44 per cent saying they believed the economy will get better over the coming 12 months, compared to 23 per cent saying it will get worst - the highest level of optimism recorded by Mori since May 1997.
Satisfaction with Gordon Brown has improved since September, with 32 per cent approving of the way the Prime Minister is doing his job and 62 per cent disapproving - an overall satisfaction rating of minus-30, six points better than the previous month.
Mr Cameron's overall rating was plus-15, nine points up on last month, with 49 per cent expressing satisfaction with his performance as Tory leader and 34 per cent dissatisfaction. Satisfaction with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg fell to plus-17 (down four).
Almost a quarter of those questioned were satisfied with the way the Government is running the country and 72 per cent dissatisfied in the poll which interviewed 996 adults across Britain
racehorse