ORR~20 Feb 09~Art Bell Live w/Michael J. Panzner

[Kaztronic]

It's not what I would LIKE to see, as though I am wishing ill on anyone. I hate seeing others in pain.

That was exactly the point of my question, and how I hoped it would be interpreted - it is why I believe civilization will not collapse as predicted here.

No one - well, very few people - want to see people in pain as a result of this crisis. It is not in the best interest of the world in the short term to allow this society to collapse (the real and terrifying pain would be beyond all human comprehension and experience) - and the world has certainly proven itself to be far more interested in short term gains, than long term gains. That is why it wont happen, there is too much to lose in the short term, and those who control the levers of power will ultimately ensure they retain control of those levers - long term solutions be damned.

I'm choosing my following words very carefully and deliberately:

There is still a bit of gas left in the tank of our civilization in my opinion.

[Kaztronic]

But the road ahead will be rocky. That cannot be denied.

On that we certainly agree.

[Bill onthe Hill]

In other words you've made yourself a target - think about it.

If your scenario were to unfold as you think and have prepared for then I think it is highly unlikely you would survive 24 months defending a fortress as described.

Kaz,

You may be correct. But then again. My fruit trees are a hundred years old. Seventy five head of elk in the field behind the house tonight. Fifty head of deer in the pasture below the house.

Stars so bright they shine like a crown. I walked across the snow hardened with a hint of spring thaw.

I have turkey and ducks. I have plows and tractors and trucks.

And fuel. Ham radios. Shortwave units. Tower with microwave links to 15 megs of bandwidth.

You could say I am silly. But I eat well. And eat most what I grow.

Target or not. That is what I do.

Did we talk about weapons?

[Kaztronic]

What I would give to step outside and see the stars again - it has been too long.

Looking out my window now, I see an orange sky.

Bill, where you live sounds beautiful - and for the record, I don't think you're being silly at all (I've taken steps that my neighbors, co-workers and friends are totally unaware of to prepare for certain possibilities as well). I only disagree about how this is likely to unfold.

[Janus232]

I only disagree about how this is likely to unfold.

Expand.....

[Psychicwolf]

That was exactly the point of my question, and how I hoped it would be interpreted - it is why I believe civilization will not collapse as predicted here.

No one - well, very few people - want to see people in pain as a result of this crisis. It is not in the best interest of the world in the short term to allow this society to collapse (the real and terrifying pain would be beyond all human comprehension and experience) - and the world has certainly proven itself to be far more interested in short term gains, than long term gains. That is why it wont happen, there is too much to lose in the short term, and those who control the levers of power will ultimately ensure they retain control of those levers - long term solutions be damned.

I'm choosing my following words very carefully and deliberately:

There is still a bit of gas left in the tank of our civilization in my opinion.

I can only wish you well. The economy is not what is going to drive the collapse, it is only a symptom. Those who "control the levers of power" cannot control the climate or other changes that coming. Like Bill said, birth is painful.

[Bill onthe Hill]

What I would give to step outside and see the stars again - it has been too long.

Looking out my window now, I see an orange sky.

Bill, where you live sounds beautiful - and for the record, I don't think you're silly at all (I've taken steps that my neighbors are totally unaware of to prepare for certain possibilities as well). I only disagree about how this is likely to unfold.

Kaz,

Where you are sounds beautiful as well. I love the city. If I ever leave here I am headed for the heart of a city for a year or so. I have enjoyed the debate. Thank you for the engagement.

You made me think about something I do not consider much. I really never worry about being a target. I have so many friends around me.

I am not optimistic but I am feeding many families with the food I grow. I help people plant gardens across the valley. I distribute food to foodbanks. I give people money sometimes. I just hand over a twenty once or twice a month.

Minimum. Just hand it over. No questions asked.

It is how I live. I hope you do as well.

I want to think the best.

Just not easy to do right now.

[Shirleypal]

Goodnight everyone, I am off to listen to the rest of the show from my pillow......

[Kaztronic]

Expand.....

OK, I am no economist so my terms will be layman.

Jobs will continue to be lost, banks will fail around the world, unemployment will continue to rise, and it is very possible that some countries will go in to revolutionary crisis (although I don't see much of that occuring in the west). I think it likely that a great deal of debt will simply end up being written off as economies reset.

Will that take two years? Perhaps not, perhaps it will take longer. But I do think that is how things are likely to play out, and that recovery will be slow and gradual.

When all is said and done, I think that Western Europe will remain much like it stands now, Eastern Europe is a different story perhaps. I also think it likely that America will remain much the same as well, an economic and military powerhouse - for better or worse depending upon ones point of view. What will become of China? I have no idea, but it will be fascinating to watch.

This is just my opinion of course.

[Kaztronic]

Night Shirley

[Psychicwolf]

It is generally accepted that complexity increases with evolution. This becomes obvious when we compare the structure of advanced creatures (animals, humans) to primitive life forms (worms, bacteria).

It is also known that evolutionary change is not gradual but proceeds by jerks. In 1972 Niles Eldredge and Stephen Jay Gould introduced the term "Punctuated Equilibria": long periods of changelessness or stasis—equilibrium—interrupted by sudden and dramatic brief periods of rapid change—punctuations. (Mike could explain Punk Eek)

All the wonders we witnessed during the 20th century surpass what happened during the previous one thousand years, which in turn is more significant than what took place during the many thousands of years that humans lived in hunting-gathering societies. What is new is that we are now reaching a point of impasse, where change is becoming too rapid for us to follow. The amount of change we are presently confronted with is approaching the limit of the untenable. Many of us find it increasingly difficult to cope effectively with an environment that changes too rapidly.

We cannot be very far from an inflection point, the maximum rate of change possible. We are due for a punctuation.

[Janus232]

I also think it likely that America will remain much the same as well, an economic and military powerhouse -

I would argue that America is bankrupt... and who will continue to buy US paper? to fuel the Military Industrial Intelligence Corporate Complex... The Japanese? China? etc... No I think not... The USSR fell almost overnight... do you remember? the topology of the Grand Chessboard is over....

[Kaztronic]

Kaz,

Where you are sounds beautiful as well. I love the city. If I ever leave here I am headed for the heart of a city for a year or so. I have enjoyed the debate. Thank you for the engagement.

You made me think about something I do not consider much. I really never worry about being a target. I have so many friends around me.

I am not optimistic but I am feeding many families with the food I grow. I help people plant gardens across the valley. I distribute food to foodbanks. I give people money sometimes. I just hand over a twenty once or twice a month.

I've enjoyed the discussion as well, and likewise, thanks for the engagement

It's interesting as I'm reading your post here, you might say that I am more optimistic about us collectively pulling out of this mess and things continuing much as they are withour civilization doing a full reboot.

On the flipside however, you seem more optimistic about the individual in my opinion. I described your efforts to prepare as making you a target - ultimately a target of those very people you help now were you ever to truly need to activate and utilize the preparations you have made to deal with any potential crisis.

Like you, I to try to help people and live my life that way as well - whenever and however I can. Sometimes with money, most often with kindness - I don't often trust people though - considering what is in the souls of people is often a chilling exercise.

Sorry that I am struggling to explain adequately what is going through my mind right now.

[Bill onthe Hill]

All,

Have you followed Denninger?

http://market-ticker.org/archives/813-E ... royed.html

his threads are located at http://www.tickerforum.org I believe. I am sure there is a live link. Great trader site.

Best debate about financials that exists on a thread.

Tonights show with Art has been pretty much right on with what I think we are facing. Art warmed right into his style.

When the bullet hits the bone.

Classic Bell..........

[Psychicwolf]

All,

Have you followed Denninger?

http://market-ticker.org/archives/813-E ... royed.html

his threads are located at http://www.tickerforum.org I believe. I am sure there is a live link. Great trader site.

Best debate about financials that exists on a thread.

Tonights show with Art has been pretty much right on with what I think we are facing. Art warmed right into his style.

When the bullet hits the bone.

Classic Bell..........

Art has done a fantastic job tonight. Thanks Art.

Denninger can get a wee bit too histrionic for me personally.

I am a regular at Roubini's RGE Monitor, Jesse's Cafe Americain, and Calculated Risk (however CR's comment section has denigrated IMO). I like a global view.