Greetings to all,
Well, I am back by popular demand. Specifically Maryals demanded that I institute a reprise of my previous column, else I would not be popular in certain parts of Alaska. So, the same old rules apply as before. Unless so noted, nothing I write can be considered policy of the agency for which I work. Everything I write will represent my personal professional opinion, and I will strive to make it as accurate and informative as possible. If you find errors, please inform me. If you like what you read, I'd like to hear that. If you hate what you read, I'd like to hear that too. And, as before, if you've questions, ideas, etc., I'd like to hear those too.
I will try to give this column as much attention as a busy schedule allows. However, in the event that I haven't looked in on it for a couple of days, you can always inform Maryals. In which case she'll either provide a response - truth be told she is probably as qualified as I am to do so - or she'll cloud up and rain all over me until I respond. Not for nothing do I carry the name Rainmaker.
Well, with that long introduction, I'll briefly introduce a topic. There are a lot of things to choose from. A number of places are having their coldest winters in decades. New findings suggest the Antarctic may be cooling down rather than heating up as previously thought. Perhaps these will be items for future commentary. Meanwhile, I've another interesting item in mind.
Long time readers of my columns may remember a couple I did about the great dust storms that sweep out of Saharan Africa and a few days later reach the east coast of the U.S. Well, according to a recent issue of Weatherwise Magazine, some researchers at the University of South Florida (one of my many alma maters)have determined that this dust may be one of the primary causes for red tide outbreaks in the Gulf of Mexico. Heres how that works, according to the researchers...
Saharan dust is high in ferric content, ie. it has a lot of iron in it. This iron content settles out with the dust in the waters of the Gulf Of Mexico, increasing the surface iron concentrations by up to 300 percent. After that there is a tenfold increase in the levels of Trichodesmium bacteria, which fixes nitrogen in the water. That action converts it, the nitrogen, to a form usable by other marine life, including the algae responsible for red tides. In October 2000 such a sequence is theorized to have produced a red tide outbreak over an 8,100 square mile area in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
It would appear that a forcasting tool now exists with which to predict the outbreak of red tides and spare people in the gulf coast states of Florida through Texas exposure to the algal toxins associated with the outbreaks. That's one tide you can take the time to wait on.
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
For the Otherwise
Moderator: Super Moderators
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jeri sexton
- Pirate
- Posts: 1630
- Joined: 05-13-2000 02:00 AM
Rainmaker.. Excellent post. Yes, San Diego experienced 'red tide for days on end a few months ago.. When the lights hit the waves at night it really was a sight to see.. All luminous, phosphorescence surf... Pretty to look at, and now know why...
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waverider
[This message has been edited by jeri sexton (edited 20 January 2002).]
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waverider
[This message has been edited by jeri sexton (edited 20 January 2002).]
YOUR EMAIL BOUCES PLEASE FIX IT or DO NOT subscribe to email notices.
Yes, Yes, keep 'em coming! Very interesting about the red tide being 'predicted' by the winds of the East. Now, more about this global warming/cooling stuff, please. I am so confused I don't WHICH one to worry about.... 
Am so glad to see this topic is back among the living, Rainmaker. (and LOL on why you're named that!!!"
Am so glad to see this topic is back among the living, Rainmaker. (and LOL on why you're named that!!!"
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Guest
Greetings to all,
An added not for you Californians. I was not so aware of red tide outbreaks on your coast. Nor am I sure that the prevailing winds deposit so much Saharan dust in your coastal waters. If they do not, and you are prone to outbreaks of red tide, I can speculate as to three possible reasons for it.
1. The prevailing winds around the North Pacific high pressure system are bringing you dust from a different desert - the Gobi.
2. The dust deposits are local in origin, from out of the Mojave and Sonoran deserts.
1&2 presume high ferric content of the dust from those deserts, a fact I am not sure about.
3. Another factor, perhaps runoff from fertilized fields is raising the local waters iron content. This might also account for some Gulf of Mexico outbreaks. Likewise it is a contributing factor to Pfisteria growth in the Mid Atlantic region.
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
An added not for you Californians. I was not so aware of red tide outbreaks on your coast. Nor am I sure that the prevailing winds deposit so much Saharan dust in your coastal waters. If they do not, and you are prone to outbreaks of red tide, I can speculate as to three possible reasons for it.
1. The prevailing winds around the North Pacific high pressure system are bringing you dust from a different desert - the Gobi.
2. The dust deposits are local in origin, from out of the Mojave and Sonoran deserts.
1&2 presume high ferric content of the dust from those deserts, a fact I am not sure about.
3. Another factor, perhaps runoff from fertilized fields is raising the local waters iron content. This might also account for some Gulf of Mexico outbreaks. Likewise it is a contributing factor to Pfisteria growth in the Mid Atlantic region.
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
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Guest
Greeting to all,
Glad to see this site is still around. Since September 11th many of my opportunities for meteorological outreach have been curtailed.
So...on with the show.
Today's topic will be a very brief consideration of a very broad and very misunderstood topic, that of weather modification. Attempts have been made to modify the weather for well over fifty years, with dubious results at best, with respect to altering large scale phenomena. This is not to say that modification does not work on a smaller level. Two prime examples of that are snow making by ski resorts and fog dispersal at major airports. A third example is the effort by citrus growers to alter grove microclimates in potential freeze conditions.
At larger scales matters become more difficult, because modifying larger weather systems involves intruding a greater presence into a chaotic system with uncertain and sometime unmeasureable results. The most promising work currently being done along these lines is in the area of hail supression. There is some evidence that directed cloud seeding can reduce the size of potential hail storms/stones, but research is ongoing and more results will be needed before anything like a definitive statement can be made. Likewise for precipitation enhancement programs (aka rainmaking) although at least seven states and as many as two dozen other countries have active research programs up and running.
A scarier prospect is the proposal, by a scientist with the Atomic Energy Commission, to use a satellite to beam a highly concentrated mircowave radiation beam into a fledgling tornado. All it would take is about a hundred million watts directed to the right place. What isn't spelled out is the impact that directed energy might have on neighborhood cats, farm animals, people, etc; items which might not have been hit by the tornado but would be on the other side of it as the beam passes through and disrupts the storm. Gives a new meaning to there goes the neighborhood.
Finally, there are the big storms. All sorts of crackpot ideas have been proposed for disrupting hurricanes. A common one is to explode a hydrogen bomb in one and bust it up. The folks proposing this evidently have no idea how much energy a good sized hurricane releases - the equivalent of one theromnuclear explosion every sixty seconds or less. Exploding an h-bomb into a hurricane would have about as much effect as standing on the railroad tracks and throwing a rock at an oncoming freight train.
Another interesting idea is to deny the big storms strength by pouring vegatable oil on the waters beneath them. This has a bit more merit except for the undetermined environmental effects of the oil, and the amount that would probably be needed. Think of a few Exxon Valdez class tankers filed with olive oil, steaming towards a hurricane. Sauteed fish anyone?
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
Glad to see this site is still around. Since September 11th many of my opportunities for meteorological outreach have been curtailed.
So...on with the show.
Today's topic will be a very brief consideration of a very broad and very misunderstood topic, that of weather modification. Attempts have been made to modify the weather for well over fifty years, with dubious results at best, with respect to altering large scale phenomena. This is not to say that modification does not work on a smaller level. Two prime examples of that are snow making by ski resorts and fog dispersal at major airports. A third example is the effort by citrus growers to alter grove microclimates in potential freeze conditions.
At larger scales matters become more difficult, because modifying larger weather systems involves intruding a greater presence into a chaotic system with uncertain and sometime unmeasureable results. The most promising work currently being done along these lines is in the area of hail supression. There is some evidence that directed cloud seeding can reduce the size of potential hail storms/stones, but research is ongoing and more results will be needed before anything like a definitive statement can be made. Likewise for precipitation enhancement programs (aka rainmaking) although at least seven states and as many as two dozen other countries have active research programs up and running.
A scarier prospect is the proposal, by a scientist with the Atomic Energy Commission, to use a satellite to beam a highly concentrated mircowave radiation beam into a fledgling tornado. All it would take is about a hundred million watts directed to the right place. What isn't spelled out is the impact that directed energy might have on neighborhood cats, farm animals, people, etc; items which might not have been hit by the tornado but would be on the other side of it as the beam passes through and disrupts the storm. Gives a new meaning to there goes the neighborhood.
Finally, there are the big storms. All sorts of crackpot ideas have been proposed for disrupting hurricanes. A common one is to explode a hydrogen bomb in one and bust it up. The folks proposing this evidently have no idea how much energy a good sized hurricane releases - the equivalent of one theromnuclear explosion every sixty seconds or less. Exploding an h-bomb into a hurricane would have about as much effect as standing on the railroad tracks and throwing a rock at an oncoming freight train.
Another interesting idea is to deny the big storms strength by pouring vegatable oil on the waters beneath them. This has a bit more merit except for the undetermined environmental effects of the oil, and the amount that would probably be needed. Think of a few Exxon Valdez class tankers filed with olive oil, steaming towards a hurricane. Sauteed fish anyone?
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
Rainmaker - There has been a lot of speculation and dismay over the past several months on what/if anything, jets observed all over the globe are 'spraying' in the skies - creating what have been dubbed Chemtrails?
Do you have any information or informed speculation on this phenomena.
Excellent article above regarding weather modification.
Do you have any information or informed speculation on this phenomena.
Excellent article above regarding weather modification.
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Cherry Kelly
- Pirate
- Posts: 12852
- Joined: 07-29-2000 02:00 AM
- Contact:
Rainmaker (and other readers)
Here in the middle of the lower 48, we have had some 'unusually warm' weather for several days. (Most while I was gone on vacation.)
This "January thaw" with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's is due for a drastic change later this week (1-28-02) and a return to figures in the teens (according to some forecasts).
Moisture is badly needed in the middle section of the USA and very dry conditions still prevail causing fire hazards. With this unusually dry winter, one can hope that spring rains will compensate for the lack of ground moisture.
Here in the middle of the lower 48, we have had some 'unusually warm' weather for several days. (Most while I was gone on vacation.)
This "January thaw" with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's is due for a drastic change later this week (1-28-02) and a return to figures in the teens (according to some forecasts).
Moisture is badly needed in the middle section of the USA and very dry conditions still prevail causing fire hazards. With this unusually dry winter, one can hope that spring rains will compensate for the lack of ground moisture.
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Guest
Greetings to all,
I've been asked the question as to the reason for unusual aircraft contrails being reported around the world, or so I'm told. I'm not familiar with anything beyond the anecdotal nature of the reports; that is I've seen nothing in the scientific literature to explain them, if they exist. And while I might speculate, it would not be informed speculation; for example perhaps a new antifreeze additive to certain types of aviation fuel would be one possible reason. I simply don't know.
That is not to say that I totally discount such reports. For example, Maryals and I, while in upstate New York last summer, saw a sky condition of a color and nature that neither one of us could describe. To this day I do not know if what I was looking at was a manmade phenomena, or some natural phenomena of which I am unaware. I'll leave it to Maryals to provide a description for those who are interested.
A mention was made on a related forum here as to the possibility of altering the course of the jet stream, and thus inducing a change in the weather or, over the long term, the climate. Well, changes in the jetstream pattern can produce just such weather/climate alterations. But as to such changes being induced by man...not possible at our present level of technology nor anything we are likely to achieve for a period of centuries to millenia. It would be orders of magnitude easier to stop a hurricane.
Finally, it is warming up here over the next few days. We may again get above freezing. For those of you down south that usually means colder temperatures are on the way. Enjoy...
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
I've been asked the question as to the reason for unusual aircraft contrails being reported around the world, or so I'm told. I'm not familiar with anything beyond the anecdotal nature of the reports; that is I've seen nothing in the scientific literature to explain them, if they exist. And while I might speculate, it would not be informed speculation; for example perhaps a new antifreeze additive to certain types of aviation fuel would be one possible reason. I simply don't know.
That is not to say that I totally discount such reports. For example, Maryals and I, while in upstate New York last summer, saw a sky condition of a color and nature that neither one of us could describe. To this day I do not know if what I was looking at was a manmade phenomena, or some natural phenomena of which I am unaware. I'll leave it to Maryals to provide a description for those who are interested.
A mention was made on a related forum here as to the possibility of altering the course of the jet stream, and thus inducing a change in the weather or, over the long term, the climate. Well, changes in the jetstream pattern can produce just such weather/climate alterations. But as to such changes being induced by man...not possible at our present level of technology nor anything we are likely to achieve for a period of centuries to millenia. It would be orders of magnitude easier to stop a hurricane.
Finally, it is warming up here over the next few days. We may again get above freezing. For those of you down south that usually means colder temperatures are on the way. Enjoy...
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
Brrrrrrr...a bit cold in Seattle after mild weather pattern through the fall and early winter.
Rainmaker - I understand you said you were unable to speculate about 'chemtrails', however wonder if you could answer this question.
If someone were spraying large amounts of aluminum particles into the atmosphere from jet aircraft - would these particles have the ability to stay aloft in the air for a significant time period and could they have the effect of 'blocking' the sun's rays, hence provide a protection against harmful ultraviolet radiation? A sort of weather modification?
Curious minds would like to know.
Rainmaker - I understand you said you were unable to speculate about 'chemtrails', however wonder if you could answer this question.
If someone were spraying large amounts of aluminum particles into the atmosphere from jet aircraft - would these particles have the ability to stay aloft in the air for a significant time period and could they have the effect of 'blocking' the sun's rays, hence provide a protection against harmful ultraviolet radiation? A sort of weather modification?
Curious minds would like to know.
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Guest
Greetings to all,
The last time I tried to answer this, upon completion it vanished into the void, and never returned. I'll try again. The recent question posed, as to whether jet dispersed aluminum particulates could modify the climate is insufficient in clarity. However it does open up some speculative possibilities I am willing to entertain. The main problem, which I'll address, has to do with particle size and type.
If the particles are large enough they'll have negligible large scale consequences aloft (other than to fuzz aircraft radars and short out any electrical systems they come in contact with) and indeterminate consequences at the surface. Chaff, dropped by the military to inhibit enemy radar, is a prime example of what I am talking about here.
If the particle size is small enough, and dropped high enough (above the tropopause) and in the right locations, then, theoretically, such material could alter the amount of uv getting through the damaged ozone layer. However, it would take an awful lot of particles, as in tons of them, put out by a lot of aircraft, over the polar regions, for such a scheme to work. Introduction of such material, in the quantities necessary, into the atmosphere, would almost certainly cause other sorts of problems.
For one thing, aluminum particles are highly reflective and would scatter visible light in addition to ultraviolet. Second, such particles would act just like dust, salt, and ash in their ablation - erosion of and damage to - aircraft.
Likewise, just as dust, salt, and ash particles do, the aluminum particles would eventually succumb to gravity and drift into the lower atmosphere where they'd become condensation nuclei for precipitation. In fact, if I remember correcctly, some aluminum compounds have been used for preciptation enhancement programs.
Upon consideration, I do not think such a scheme to be a wise course of actiion. While it would very probably modify the climate, the modification would not necessarily be what one might have expected; as is often the case with chaotic systems.
I hope this answers the question. I also hope such "modification" never comes to pass. My job is already difficult enough, without interference from primates trying to play God.
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
The last time I tried to answer this, upon completion it vanished into the void, and never returned. I'll try again. The recent question posed, as to whether jet dispersed aluminum particulates could modify the climate is insufficient in clarity. However it does open up some speculative possibilities I am willing to entertain. The main problem, which I'll address, has to do with particle size and type.
If the particles are large enough they'll have negligible large scale consequences aloft (other than to fuzz aircraft radars and short out any electrical systems they come in contact with) and indeterminate consequences at the surface. Chaff, dropped by the military to inhibit enemy radar, is a prime example of what I am talking about here.
If the particle size is small enough, and dropped high enough (above the tropopause) and in the right locations, then, theoretically, such material could alter the amount of uv getting through the damaged ozone layer. However, it would take an awful lot of particles, as in tons of them, put out by a lot of aircraft, over the polar regions, for such a scheme to work. Introduction of such material, in the quantities necessary, into the atmosphere, would almost certainly cause other sorts of problems.
For one thing, aluminum particles are highly reflective and would scatter visible light in addition to ultraviolet. Second, such particles would act just like dust, salt, and ash in their ablation - erosion of and damage to - aircraft.
Likewise, just as dust, salt, and ash particles do, the aluminum particles would eventually succumb to gravity and drift into the lower atmosphere where they'd become condensation nuclei for precipitation. In fact, if I remember correcctly, some aluminum compounds have been used for preciptation enhancement programs.
Upon consideration, I do not think such a scheme to be a wise course of actiion. While it would very probably modify the climate, the modification would not necessarily be what one might have expected; as is often the case with chaotic systems.
I hope this answers the question. I also hope such "modification" never comes to pass. My job is already difficult enough, without interference from primates trying to play God.
Rainmaker
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Justice Is Coming
Rainmaker -
Your previous posts have not vanished. They are stored on PDF files which I am working on indexing. They will be made available very soon - hopefully at the end of the week.
Your discussion, above, has caused me to revise my thinking about 'chemtrails'. Obviously, dispersing aluminum particles in the atmosphere would accomplish little in the way of weather modification.
Thanks, Rainmaker, for clearing this up for me.
Your previous posts have not vanished. They are stored on PDF files which I am working on indexing. They will be made available very soon - hopefully at the end of the week.
Your discussion, above, has caused me to revise my thinking about 'chemtrails'. Obviously, dispersing aluminum particles in the atmosphere would accomplish little in the way of weather modification.
Thanks, Rainmaker, for clearing this up for me.