Climate Change..... After the Day After II
Moderator: Super Moderators
"There is widespread concern that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be prone to collapse, resulting in a rise in global sea levels..... We’ve been able to calculate that not only will the rise in sea levels at most coastal sites be significantly higher than previously expected, but that the sea-level change will be highly variable around the globe”
“The typical estimate of the sea-level change is five metres, a value arrived at by taking the total volume of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, converting it to water and spreading it evenly across the oceans.... However, this estimate is far too simplified because it ignores three significant effects:
when an ice sheet melts, its gravitational pull on the ocean is reduced and water moves away from it._ The net effect is that the sea level actually falls within 2,000 km of a melting ice sheet, and rises progressively further away from it._ If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses, sea level will fall close to the Antarctic and will rise much more than the expected estimate in the northern hemisphere because of this gravitational effect... the depression in the Antarctic bedrock that currently sits under the weight of the ice sheet will become filled with water if the ice sheet collapses._ However, the size of this hole will shrink as the region rebounds after the ice disappears, pushing some of the water out into the ocean, and this effect will further contribute to the sea-level rise..... the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will actually cause the Earth’s rotation axis to shift rather dramatically – approximately 500 metres from its present position if the entire ice sheet melts._ This shift will move water from the southern Atlantic and Pacific oceans northward toward North America and into the southern Indian Ocean.
The net effect of all of these processes is that if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses, the rise in sea levels around many coastal regions will be as much as 25 per cent more than expected, for a total of between six and seven metres if the whole ice sheet melts... That’s a lot of additional water, particularly around such highly populated areas as Washington, D.C., New York City, and the California coastline.
There is still some important debate as to how much ice would actually disappear if the West Antarctic Ice sheet collapses – some fraction of the ice sheet may remain quite stable.... But, whatever happens, our work shows that the sea-level rise that would occur at many populated coastal sites would be much larger than one would estimate by simply distributing the meltwater evenly._ Any careful assessment of the sea-level hazard associated with the loss of major ice reservoirs must, of course, account for the sea-level fingerprint of other sources of meltwater, namely Greenland, the East Antarctic and mountain glaciers._ The most important lesson is that scientists and policy makers should focus on projections that avoid simplistic assumptions” ...... Geophysicist Jerry X. Mitrovica
Further reading for the Interested......
Publications 1985-2007
http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/~jxm/pubs.html
In Greenland, ice and instability
Andrew C. Revkin 08-01- 2008
http://www.physsci.uci.edu/psnews/?id=358
Final frontier: Mission to explore buried ancient Antarctic lake given green light
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press ... php?id=784
International Research Team Confirms Alps-like Mountain Range Exists under East Antarctic Ice Sheet
http://www.solutions-site.org/artman/pu ... _436.shtml
The sea-level fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19197056
“The typical estimate of the sea-level change is five metres, a value arrived at by taking the total volume of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, converting it to water and spreading it evenly across the oceans.... However, this estimate is far too simplified because it ignores three significant effects:
when an ice sheet melts, its gravitational pull on the ocean is reduced and water moves away from it._ The net effect is that the sea level actually falls within 2,000 km of a melting ice sheet, and rises progressively further away from it._ If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses, sea level will fall close to the Antarctic and will rise much more than the expected estimate in the northern hemisphere because of this gravitational effect... the depression in the Antarctic bedrock that currently sits under the weight of the ice sheet will become filled with water if the ice sheet collapses._ However, the size of this hole will shrink as the region rebounds after the ice disappears, pushing some of the water out into the ocean, and this effect will further contribute to the sea-level rise..... the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will actually cause the Earth’s rotation axis to shift rather dramatically – approximately 500 metres from its present position if the entire ice sheet melts._ This shift will move water from the southern Atlantic and Pacific oceans northward toward North America and into the southern Indian Ocean.
The net effect of all of these processes is that if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses, the rise in sea levels around many coastal regions will be as much as 25 per cent more than expected, for a total of between six and seven metres if the whole ice sheet melts... That’s a lot of additional water, particularly around such highly populated areas as Washington, D.C., New York City, and the California coastline.
There is still some important debate as to how much ice would actually disappear if the West Antarctic Ice sheet collapses – some fraction of the ice sheet may remain quite stable.... But, whatever happens, our work shows that the sea-level rise that would occur at many populated coastal sites would be much larger than one would estimate by simply distributing the meltwater evenly._ Any careful assessment of the sea-level hazard associated with the loss of major ice reservoirs must, of course, account for the sea-level fingerprint of other sources of meltwater, namely Greenland, the East Antarctic and mountain glaciers._ The most important lesson is that scientists and policy makers should focus on projections that avoid simplistic assumptions” ...... Geophysicist Jerry X. Mitrovica
Further reading for the Interested......
Publications 1985-2007
http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/~jxm/pubs.html
In Greenland, ice and instability
Andrew C. Revkin 08-01- 2008
http://www.physsci.uci.edu/psnews/?id=358
Final frontier: Mission to explore buried ancient Antarctic lake given green light
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press ... php?id=784
International Research Team Confirms Alps-like Mountain Range Exists under East Antarctic Ice Sheet
http://www.solutions-site.org/artman/pu ... _436.shtml
The sea-level fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19197056
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
A sinking feeling
“I expect that sea-level rise will accelerate as the planet gets hotter”
http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... d=13277407
Sea levels to surge 'at least a metre' by century end
"A sea level rise of one or two meters would not just be damaging for China, it would be an absolute catastrophe. And what is catastrophic for China is catastrophic for the world"
http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/inde ... &Itemid=33
Broaden China-U.S. Cooperation in the 21st Century - (CSIS)
"China and the United States share important common interests with respect to climate change, energy and the environment. Energy security, clean energy, energy conservation and pollution reduction feature prominently in our respective national development strategies. China stands ready to strengthen dialogue and consultation with the United States, pursue practical cooperation in energy conservation, new energy and renewable energy, and work with other parties under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" to ensure the success of the Copenhagen conference scheduled for the end of the year" - Yang Jiechi
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 005185.htm
Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?
"Recent record lows of Arctic summer sea ice extent are found to be triggered by the Arctic atmospheric Dipole Anomaly (DA) pattern. This local, second–leading mode of sea–level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the Arctic produced a strong meridional wind anomaly that drove more sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean from the western to the eastern Arctic into the northern Atlantic during the summers of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In the 2007 summer, the DA also enhanced anomalous oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait, which accelerated bottom and lateral melting of sea ice and amplified the ice–albedo feedback. A coupled ice–ocean model was used to confirm the historical record lows of summer sea ice extent"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6706.shtml
“I expect that sea-level rise will accelerate as the planet gets hotter”
http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... d=13277407
Sea levels to surge 'at least a metre' by century end
"A sea level rise of one or two meters would not just be damaging for China, it would be an absolute catastrophe. And what is catastrophic for China is catastrophic for the world"
http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/inde ... &Itemid=33
Broaden China-U.S. Cooperation in the 21st Century - (CSIS)
"China and the United States share important common interests with respect to climate change, energy and the environment. Energy security, clean energy, energy conservation and pollution reduction feature prominently in our respective national development strategies. China stands ready to strengthen dialogue and consultation with the United States, pursue practical cooperation in energy conservation, new energy and renewable energy, and work with other parties under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" to ensure the success of the Copenhagen conference scheduled for the end of the year" - Yang Jiechi
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 005185.htm
Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?
"Recent record lows of Arctic summer sea ice extent are found to be triggered by the Arctic atmospheric Dipole Anomaly (DA) pattern. This local, second–leading mode of sea–level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the Arctic produced a strong meridional wind anomaly that drove more sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean from the western to the eastern Arctic into the northern Atlantic during the summers of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In the 2007 summer, the DA also enhanced anomalous oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait, which accelerated bottom and lateral melting of sea ice and amplified the ice–albedo feedback. A coupled ice–ocean model was used to confirm the historical record lows of summer sea ice extent"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6706.shtml
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Carbonated Oceans Scripps Institute of Oceanography - Podcast 16.3MB
"As carbon dioxide is pumped into the atmosphere, about one-third of the excess is taken up by the oceans, where it converts to an acidic form with potentially dangerous ecosystem consequences"
http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Podcast/con ... oceans.mp3
Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles
"The maps we produced show that by the time atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 will reach 560 ppm all coral reefs will cease to grow and start to dissolve"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6282.shtml
So Long And Thanks For All The Fish
http://www.planktos-science.com/newsroom.html
Plan B: scientists get radical in bid to halt global warming ‘catastrophe’
“planned global recession”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 908377.ece
"As carbon dioxide is pumped into the atmosphere, about one-third of the excess is taken up by the oceans, where it converts to an acidic form with potentially dangerous ecosystem consequences"
http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Podcast/con ... oceans.mp3
Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles
"The maps we produced show that by the time atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 will reach 560 ppm all coral reefs will cease to grow and start to dissolve"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6282.shtml
So Long And Thanks For All The Fish
http://www.planktos-science.com/newsroom.html
Plan B: scientists get radical in bid to halt global warming ‘catastrophe’
“planned global recession”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 908377.ece
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
ESA's gravity satellite successfully in orbit
"The satellite is already in a polar sun-synchronous orbit, but it'll be another six weeks before it settles in its final cruising altitude - just 160 miles above Earth's surface at the edge of the Earth's atmosphere"
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=365
Climate change: implications for defence and security
Bill Rammell: UK Foreign Office Minister - 17/03/2009 - Tokyo
http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/newsroom/lates ... d=15012203
Scientists warn on climate tipping points
"We have provided real data for these key climate indicators and what this has shown is there are good reasons why we should be taking urgent action now to reduce the possibility of something going catastrophically wrong in the future”
http://www.physorg.com/news156525085.html
"The satellite is already in a polar sun-synchronous orbit, but it'll be another six weeks before it settles in its final cruising altitude - just 160 miles above Earth's surface at the edge of the Earth's atmosphere"
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=365
Climate change: implications for defence and security
Bill Rammell: UK Foreign Office Minister - 17/03/2009 - Tokyo
http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/newsroom/lates ... d=15012203
Scientists warn on climate tipping points
"We have provided real data for these key climate indicators and what this has shown is there are good reasons why we should be taking urgent action now to reduce the possibility of something going catastrophically wrong in the future”
http://www.physorg.com/news156525085.html
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Sinking in a sea of sand
"The World 4 degrees warmer"
http://www.theolivepress.es/wp-content/ ... ge-map.jpg
"The World 4 degrees warmer"
http://www.theolivepress.es/wp-content/ ... ge-map.jpg
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Has the climate recently shifted?
"This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability serve as a harbinger of climate shifts. Specifically, when the major modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability are synchronized, or resonate, and the coupling between those modes simultaneously increases, the climate system appears to be thrown into a new state, marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend and in the character of El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 7022.shtml
Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity
I AM shocked, truly shocked..... I was in Siberia a few weeks ago, and I am now just back in from the field in Alaska. The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=12966
Glacier dust key to past climates
"However, the dust levels showed some sudden changes which had us puzzled - until we realised that the Patagonian glaciers were acting as an on/off switch for releasing dust into the atmosphere"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scot ... 971017.stm
"This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability serve as a harbinger of climate shifts. Specifically, when the major modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability are synchronized, or resonate, and the coupling between those modes simultaneously increases, the climate system appears to be thrown into a new state, marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend and in the character of El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 7022.shtml
Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity
I AM shocked, truly shocked..... I was in Siberia a few weeks ago, and I am now just back in from the field in Alaska. The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=12966
Glacier dust key to past climates
"However, the dust levels showed some sudden changes which had us puzzled - until we realised that the Patagonian glaciers were acting as an on/off switch for releasing dust into the atmosphere"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scot ... 971017.stm
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Collapse of Ice Bridge Supporting Antarctic's Wilkins Ice Shelf Imminent
“Antarctica’s ice sheet was formed by millennia of accumulated and compacted snow. Along the coast the ice gradually floats on the sea, forming massive ledges known as ice shelves. Several of these ice shelves, including seven in the past 20 years, have retreated and disintegrated”
http://www.earthfiles.com/
“Antarctica’s ice sheet was formed by millennia of accumulated and compacted snow. Along the coast the ice gradually floats on the sea, forming massive ledges known as ice shelves. Several of these ice shelves, including seven in the past 20 years, have retreated and disintegrated”
http://www.earthfiles.com/
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Ice bridge ruptures in Antarctic
"It's amazing how the ice has ruptured... Two days ago it was intact. We've waited a long time to see this"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7984054.stm
"It's amazing how the ice has ruptured... Two days ago it was intact. We've waited a long time to see this"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7984054.stm
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Possible Forecast for Continued Antarctica Glacier Loss and Sea-Level Rise Due to Climate Change USGS
"This study provides the first insight into the extent of Antarctica's coastal and glacier change. The rapid retreat of glaciers there demonstrates once again the profound effects our planet is already experiencing-more rapidly than previously known"
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2186
Wilkins Ice Shelf News
"The Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) on the Envisat satellite shows new rifts in the narrow strip of ice that connects the Wilkins Ice shelf to Charcot Island"
http://nsidc.org/news/press/wilkins/
Toxic gas: cause of Earth's largest ever mass extinction?
"Using steppe plant species we were able to prove that halogenated gases contribute to speeding up desertification"
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/2659 ... extinction
Sites in Peril
"We're up against a huge uncertainty at present"
http://www.archaeology.org/0903/etc/climate_change.html
"This study provides the first insight into the extent of Antarctica's coastal and glacier change. The rapid retreat of glaciers there demonstrates once again the profound effects our planet is already experiencing-more rapidly than previously known"
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2186
Wilkins Ice Shelf News
"The Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) on the Envisat satellite shows new rifts in the narrow strip of ice that connects the Wilkins Ice shelf to Charcot Island"
http://nsidc.org/news/press/wilkins/
Toxic gas: cause of Earth's largest ever mass extinction?
"Using steppe plant species we were able to prove that halogenated gases contribute to speeding up desertification"
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/2659 ... extinction
Sites in Peril
"We're up against a huge uncertainty at present"
http://www.archaeology.org/0903/etc/climate_change.html
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Climate change and atmospheric circulation will make for uneven ozone recovery
"Earth's ozone layer should eventually recover from the unintended destruction brought on by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar ozone-depleting chemicals in the 20th century. But new research by NASA scientists suggests the ozone layer of the future is unlikely to look much like the past because greenhouse gases are changing the dynamics of the atmosphere"
http://www.innovations-report.de/html/b ... 30985.html
The pacemaker of major climate shifts
"Models and data suggest that the interplay of major climate modes may result in climate shifts. More specifically it has been shown that when the network of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific Index (NPI) synchronizes, an increase in the coupling between these oscillations destroys the synchronous state and leads the climate system to a new state"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6874.shtml
Water scarcity and future business risks
"Worsening water security will soon tear into various parts of the global economic system...We are now on the verge of water bankruptcy in many places with no way of paying the debt back … The consequences for regional economic and political stability will be serious"
http://www.lloyds.com/News_Centre/Featu ... _risks.htm
Ecological debt: no way back from bankrupt
"Nature Doesn't Do Bailouts!"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7988648.stm
Dolphins deafened by navy noise
"Marine mammals are of particular concern regarding the effects of noise as they typically have sensitive underwater hearing and they use sound for important activities such as communicating, orienteering and finding prey"
http://royalsociety.org/news.asp?id=8437
"Earth's ozone layer should eventually recover from the unintended destruction brought on by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar ozone-depleting chemicals in the 20th century. But new research by NASA scientists suggests the ozone layer of the future is unlikely to look much like the past because greenhouse gases are changing the dynamics of the atmosphere"
http://www.innovations-report.de/html/b ... 30985.html
The pacemaker of major climate shifts
"Models and data suggest that the interplay of major climate modes may result in climate shifts. More specifically it has been shown that when the network of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific Index (NPI) synchronizes, an increase in the coupling between these oscillations destroys the synchronous state and leads the climate system to a new state"
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 ... 6874.shtml
Water scarcity and future business risks
"Worsening water security will soon tear into various parts of the global economic system...We are now on the verge of water bankruptcy in many places with no way of paying the debt back … The consequences for regional economic and political stability will be serious"
http://www.lloyds.com/News_Centre/Featu ... _risks.htm
Ecological debt: no way back from bankrupt
"Nature Doesn't Do Bailouts!"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7988648.stm
Dolphins deafened by navy noise
"Marine mammals are of particular concern regarding the effects of noise as they typically have sensitive underwater hearing and they use sound for important activities such as communicating, orienteering and finding prey"
http://royalsociety.org/news.asp?id=8437
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Gaia - A final Warning Lovelock
Nature - Video Interview
http://www.nature.com/nature/videoarchive/lovelock/
Nature - Video Interview
http://www.nature.com/nature/videoarchive/lovelock/
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
The odds of tipping
"According to the estimates of climate scientists in a newly published expert survey, there is more than a 50% chance of major changes in the global climate system if global warming proceeds at the current rate"
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-re ... of-tipping
Climate change to claim 600,000 lives a year
"Copenhagen needs to be the most ambitious international agreement ever negotiated....The alternative is mass starvation, mass migration and mass sickness"
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 77,00.html
The Global Food Crisis: The End of Plenty
http://www.truthabouttrade.org/content/ ... 4/lang,en/
"According to the estimates of climate scientists in a newly published expert survey, there is more than a 50% chance of major changes in the global climate system if global warming proceeds at the current rate"
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-re ... of-tipping
Climate change to claim 600,000 lives a year
"Copenhagen needs to be the most ambitious international agreement ever negotiated....The alternative is mass starvation, mass migration and mass sickness"
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 77,00.html
The Global Food Crisis: The End of Plenty
http://www.truthabouttrade.org/content/ ... 4/lang,en/
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
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Video: Century-Old Taxidermy Yields Clues to Climate Future
BERKELEY, California — A hundred years ago, zoologist Joseph Grinnell was thinking about you. Long before ENIAC or ARPANET, the visionary first director of the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at the University of California-Berkeley was focused on preserving data for future generations.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/06/mvz-grinnell
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/06/mvz-grinnell
Migration and climate change
“You can’t just stockpile people"
http://www.economist.com/world/internat ... d=13925906
“You can’t just stockpile people"
http://www.economist.com/world/internat ... d=13925906
.... Techno Tribal Positively Primal
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....
Shamanic Anarchistic Archaic Revival....