From Art: Goodbye cruel world!

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Barbie
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Post by Barbie » 11-29-2006 03:35 PM

Perhaps for the greatest and best chance to help all of the people in DURIAN'S way, we can all visulatize the typhoon "falling apart" - spreading out decidedly - before it gets to the islands. Imagine it as a huge puff of smoke, and picture the smoke being 'redistributed' (for lack of a better term) in the center, gently, and dispersing evenly so none of the destructive rhythms stay in tact. That might coax it into several windy rain storms, but the punch will be far less.

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spaceprophet
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Updates!

Post by spaceprophet » 11-29-2006 04:17 PM

Call in to the show with updates Art!

Good luck, God speed, and may the wind be always at your back. :D
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man. - Jack Handey

Alien-BC
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Post by Alien-BC » 11-29-2006 04:41 PM

Barbie Are you sure that white stuff you put on your breakfast cereals or in your coffee this morning was sugar?
That's one hell of an imagination you got there.;)
Last edited by Alien-BC on 11-29-2006 04:43 PM, edited 1 time in total.

Dixie Butcher
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Post by Dixie Butcher » 11-29-2006 04:54 PM

Art, I have a very short list of people I'd like to meet in this lifetime, and you are on it, so I'm afraid you are not allowed to perish or be harmed in any consequential way.

I hereby remove my personal ban of Mass Con. "experiments" and gladly join the rest of you. And let's do another separate Mass Con that Noory doesn't attempt to do his own, as I personally do not believe his intentions are ever pure when he meddles in these endeavors.

You are loved, Art Bell.

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Post by Shirleypal » 11-29-2006 05:07 PM

Art I have been praying for you and Airyan all day, glad the storm has been downgraded, I know you will contact us as soon as you can.......love you and looking forward to weekends with you for a long time to come. Light coming your way.

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ElKamino
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Post by ElKamino » 11-29-2006 05:10 PM

Alien-BC wrote: Yes!! Good News down to Cat2 ;)


Sure...if you are at ground level.
What is he...some 19 floors up?
Art, the best advice I can give you is to duct tape yer butt to a concrete post and hope for the best.
Not to worry kiddies. The folks in the Philippines know how to build sturdy buildings. The trick is, having enough money to live in them.
Here's Durian at landfall...

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Update from Typhoon2000 - 5:00 AM Manila

Post by Linnea » 11-29-2006 05:13 PM

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Catanduanes: Ongoing until 1PM today.
+ Camarines Sur: 10AM until 7PM today.
+ Camarines Norte: 3PM until 11PM today.
+ Southern Quezon: 7PM today until 7AM tomorrow.
+ Metro Manila: 4AM until 4PM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUPER TYPHOON DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016:
As of 5:00 AM local (21:00 GMT) Thu 30 November
Source: JTWC Warning #017 (US Navy/Air Force)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Super Typhoon DURIAN (REMING) weakens slightly to a 240-km/hr Category 4 system as it remains a potentially catastrophic and life-threatening typhoon...Eye becoming larger as it nears Catanduanes & Camarines Sur...Landfall in just a few hours.

*This system is much stronger than XANGSANE (MILENYO) which crossed almost the same area 2 months ago...All interests in the Northern Samar, Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous typhoon.

+ Forecast Outlook: DURIAN's core (eye & eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes Island this morning at approximately 8 or 9 AM in the morning and then cross Caramoan Peninsula in Camarines Sur passing over the towns of Caramoan-Garchitorena (12 Noon), Lagonoy-Goa (2 PM), Tinambac-Calabanga-Siruma (3 PM) and shall move across San Miguel Bay (4-5 PM) with a close distance of approx. 30 km. to the north of Naga City. It shall then cross Daet and into Mount Labo area in Camarines Norte around 5-6 PM this afternoon and shall be over Lamon Bay at around midnight tomorrow (Fri Dec 1). DURIAN is expected to continue traversing the archipelago passing over Mauban, Quezon around 2 AM Fri. The weakening core shall be in the vicinity of Metro Manila before noontime, Friday (Dec 1) and shall exit the South China Sea via Subic Bay-Iba Area early Saturday morning.

+ Effects: DURIAN's Inner Bands is now enveloping the whole Bicol Region and Northern Samar, with its Eyewall now affecting Catanduanes Island and an expanding Eye just offshore. Extreme typhoon conditions can be expected across Catanduanes and later on over Camarines Sur as DURIAN makes landfall. Strong winds of up to 100 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains can be expected on areas within the typhoon's inner bands. Meanwhile, the outer bands of DURIAN continues to spread across the Quezon, Masbate, Northern Visayas, including Boracay Island Resort, Marinduque, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Southern portions of Central Luzon and Metro Manila. Passing showers with winds of not more than 50 km/hr can be expected along areas within the outer bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of where the center of DURIAN makes landfall in Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces today.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Light to Moderate Northeast Monsoon enhanced by TY DURIAN (REMING) is currently bringing cloudy skies with occasional showers and cool winds across Northern Luzon.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Time/Date: 5:00 AM Thu November 30
Location of Eye: 13.5º N Lat 124.9º E Lon {SatFix}
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) East of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 185 km (100 nm) ESE of Naga City
Distance 4: 225 km (122 nm) ESE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
Max Sust Winds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts)
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Central Pressure: 910 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Catanduanes-Camarines Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg-Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft (12.4 m)
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
View Live T2K Weather Station: Naga City
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # FOUR (4)
In Effect: CATANDUANES, ALBAY & CAMARINES PROVINCES.


PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: SORSOGON, BURIAS IS., QUEZON, POLILLO IS. & MARINDUQUE.


PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: NORTHERN SAMAR, MASBATE, ROMBLON, ORIENTAL MINDORO, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, AURORA, BATAAN & METRO MANILA.

The above provinces will experience stormy weather today (with winds of up to 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03 and in excess of 185 kph for #04. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: REST OF SAMAR, BILIRAN IS., OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, LUBANG IS., ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO & ISABELA.

The above areas will have occasional rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods and landslides, respectively while those living in coastal areas under Storm Signals 2, 3 and 4 are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 13 to 18 feet.



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Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form from JTWC and other source agencies for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Pressure Estimates & Philipppine Storm Warning Signals by: NRL & PAGASA. Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if necessary) taken from T2K`s DAVIS VANTAGE PRO Digital Weather Station.

THE NEXT ADVISORY/UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 12 PM (04 GMT) TODAY.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

© 2006 Typhoon2000.com
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Alien-BC
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Post by Alien-BC » 11-29-2006 05:28 PM

Pirates you can keep an eye on Art’s area here.

Manilaview live cam


Yes Linnea it seems they get lots of super storms this time of year. So I guess your right they build in accordance.

SETIsLady
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Post by SETIsLady » 11-29-2006 05:51 PM

Checking in, you are in our thoughts Art.

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circledancer
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Post by circledancer » 11-29-2006 06:07 PM

Be well Art, you and yours!

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Post by majda » 11-29-2006 06:29 PM

You're a national treasure Art, you and your family (yes, kitties too), simply must stay safe. I am picturing you back in that ethereal High Desert, safe and sound, -- coming to us from the magic of the night.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government -- lest it come to dominate our lives and interests." ~ Patrick Henry

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Post by Crow T. Robot » 11-29-2006 06:52 PM

Thoughts and prayers to you and yours Art.

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starrmtn001
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Post by starrmtn001 » 11-29-2006 07:34 PM

Dear Art.

You, your family, and your extended family of your new homeland are still in my Thoughts, Prayers, and my Heart. May all of you have safe passage through this - adventure. Blessed Be.

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tiffany
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Post by tiffany » 11-29-2006 07:58 PM

Art we are sending out light and luv your way for a safe passage through this typhoon. Please seek the safest shelter.....And when you come out of this one.........It's time to come home!!!

Thinking calm seas that stretch into your area.............

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tiffany
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Let's Hope For Weakening

Post by tiffany » 11-29-2006 08:26 PM

THE STORM IS CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 72 DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A PARTIAL 290915Z QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN-
MANT OF DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
WEAKEN THE STORM. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL GRADUALLY ASSUME A
MORE DOMINANT ROLE IN STEERING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INDUCE A GRADUAL

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/wp2406prog.txt

Click on Zoom Animation of storm headed for Manila:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

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